Comment on the June 23 prediction: We saw some nice drops in prices this past week, down below $3.30 in some places. The prediction was CORRECT.
Saturday, June 30, 2012, 8:30AM: Yesterday, due to some relief among speculators about financial events in Europe (which may be short-lived), and I suspect some Federal Reserve goosing of the markets, stocks soared. Of course, that means oil and gas wholesale prices soared, too. A barrel of oil cost almost 10% more by the end of the day versus the end of the day Tuesday, and Chicago wholesale prices jumped 18 cents. Dropping retail prices plus soaring wholesale prices equals a price hike coming Monday. (They wouldn’t do it today, would they?) Anticipate the new price to be in the $3.39-$3.49 range.
Comment on the June 12 prediction: We’ve had no hike since June 12, and prices were at or below $3.69 last Monday, so the prediction was CORRECT.
Saturday, June 23, 2012, 4:00PM: Yesterday’s front-page headline on USA Today screamed, “Gas Prices Could Hit $3 By Autumn“. For years, we’ve discussed on this site how gas prices have become intimately tied into the stock market, so USA Today might as well have said, “Dow to Fall to 11,000 by Autumn”. If you really think gas prices are going to $3 a gallon in October, then sell short the UGA fund.
Estimating the wholesale price to retailers using publicly-available data, we can try to predict gas prices a week from now, though, and my prediction is LOWER. Based on Friday’s close, retailers in west Michigan should be paying around $3.20 a gallon right now, down from $3.68 on June 12. So, retail prices have a long way to fall from the $3.50’s that I am seeing as I drive around. Don’t be in a rush to fill up the next several days. — Ed Aboufadel
Comment on the May 30 prediction: The “no price hike” prediction was good for a week (CORRECT), but then we got hikes on June 5 (to $3.79) and June 11 (to $3.89).
Tuesday, June 12, 2012, 8:30PM: Time to get annoyed. On May 11, oil closed at $96.13 a barrel with Chicago wholesale prices at $2.98. This evening, oil closed at $83.32. Chicago wholesale price: $2.98. Something is affecting local prices, and I am not happy about it, and have not been able to detect possible price hikes. I’m here in Boston right now, and retail prices are 20 cents lower. So, what to do? I think wholesale prices will be dropping — they are 5 cents lower than yesterday — so retail prices should be working their way down to $3.69 by Monday. That’s a prediction.
By the way, 10 years ago today I created the Gas Game blog and here was my first post: “Wednesday, June 12, 2002: Gas price in Standale this morning was $1.34. Expect prices to continue to decline until early next week, getting down to $1.24.” That first prediction turned out to be WRONG. $1.34 a gallon?