Screwy Wholesale Prices in the Midwest

Comment on the January 24 posting:  Prices re-set on Friday of that week, after wholesale prices jumped, so let’s call it WRONG.

Monday, February 13, 2012, 6:45PM:  Sorry for the lack of writing lately.  I haven’t been sure what to say.  Wholesale prices jump around, and we get a price hike in one place, but not the other.  But what is going on today?  It seemed like we were setting up for a price reset to $3.49, but Chicago wholesale prices dropped a lot today, and we are now in a situation where we seem to be enjoying wholesale prices which are 50 cents cheaper than New York wholesale prices!  So, here’s the game plan for the rest of the week:  retail prices in Speedway country should continue to drop, maybe as low as $3.09, but if anything happens to cause the Chicago wholesale prices to shoot back up, we’ll get a price hike.  Keep an eye on the price signs!  -Ed Aboufadel

Updated: February 13, 2012 — 6:44 pm

8 Comments

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  1. My fear is that the big drop it temporary. We are about to switch over to March delivery, and February didn’t get much love yesterday because of it. It’s a volatile situation this week, for sure.

  2. Its crazy out there but as you said Bill, I’m scared for a huge spike this summer. Once again, I really appreciate everything that all of you do to help everyone out there.

  3. Chicago down another 4.98¢ (1.98%) this afternoon to $2.4627.

    New York is currently down 3.04¢ to $2.9821. That is a 51.94¢ difference, possibly the largest we’ve ever seen.

  4. What I’m noticing is a situation similar to what happened back at the end of September. At that time, a free-fall from $3.89 ended with some Speedway locations (conveniently the ones in the zip code 48912) at $2.98. Not long after, we saw stations jump to a more uniform $3.15, then $3.25. It seems like stations will be “resetting” back up to a slightly higher price (not really a hike) in coming days if a hike is no longer forthcoming this week.

  5. New York March futures are currently $3.0034.

    New York April futures are currently $3.1615.

    That is a 15.81¢ difference waiting to hit us before the end of this month.

    Chicago finished the day down exactly 8¢ (3.18%) at $2.4325. That is a 57.09¢ discount to New York and 72.9¢ discount to New York April.

    Prepare for lift-off.

  6. Wow.

    The Chicago market just keeps tanking. It is down today another 9.46¢ (3.89%) to $2.3379. That appears to be below the lowest closing price for any day in the past year.

    That puts the Michigan spike line BELOW $3 at $2.982514.

    New York March remains basically the same, $2.9917, 65.38¢ above Chicago.

    Chicago closed at $2.7178 on Thursday, February 9. It is down 37.99¢ since then.

    Ohio’s retail average of $3.281 is the 7th lowest in the nation. Ohio now has 1 station below $3, a Sunoco in Cambridge reported at $2.999.

    Indiana’s $3.293 average is the 8th lowest in the nation. $3.079 is the lowest reported in that state.

    Michigan has the 12th lowest prices in the nation with an average of $3.355. $3.069 at a Sunoco in Pontiac is the lowest reported so far.

    Dayton ($3.228), Columbus ($3.233), Indianapolis ($3.237), and Toledo ($3.240) have the 11th through 14th lowest retail averages in the nation. The national average is $3.485.

  7. Interesting how coincidentally the GOP capagine stops are giving a “feel good” euphoric attitude to well wishers of the party. Market influences on futures motivated by political gains…superpac’s …OMG what’s next little green men and anal probing?…get out your tinfoil hats and keep a sharp look over your shoulder everyone..those boys making this a battle ground in the midwest keep pumping highly concentrated O2 into the room and removing all the clocks like a vegas casino. Free gas is an option…..You can buy my primary vote, it’s for sale!

  8. Finally an up day in the Chicago spot: 14.54¢ (6.13%) to $2.5171.

    This moves the Michigan spike line up, well away from $3, to $3.172466.

    The Michigan average is $3.331, giving the spike line a 15.8534¢ margin.

    $3.272 Kalamazoo average, with the lowest reported price $3.199 at Cork Valley Shell.

    $3.263 Grand Rapids average, with the lowest reported price $3.169 at Meijer, 2 Admirals, and Speedway in Lowell.

    With it now being Thursday evening and the spike line margin remaining healthy, retail prices should continue falling through Monday morning. Tomorrow’s closing Chicago price will determine if there is a reset Monday morning. If Chicago increases tomorrow like it did today, plan on a reset Monday morning.

    New York March futures settled up 4.04¢ today to $3.0471.

    New York April futures settled at $3.2066.

    New York March WTI oil settled at $102.31.

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