Month: February 2012

Spike likely again early this week.

We have been across the spike line for quite some time. I thought the spike up in prices last week was pretty strong, but it wasn’t enough to put us back in the positive. Therefore, I’ve been waiting on pins and needles for another spike to happen.

I don’t expect us to cross the $4 barrier yet, and stations are usually reluctant to do so. But I can see us pushing at or near $3.99, probably falling in the $2.85-89 range either today or tomorrow. Keep an eye on the comments of this thread for when the spike finally comes.

What a lousy week. So, let’s calm down.

Comment on the February 13 posting:  Prices got down to the $3.20’s before this week’s hike-fest.

Thursday, February 23, 2012, 6:15PM:  Well, I picked a good time to go traveling and have wall-to-wall meetings at work.  Two hikes this week, and we are sitting at $3.69.  Why?  As noted in earlier postings on this site, Chicago wholesale prices plunged earlier this month, while wholesale prices in other places like New York didn’t.  That was a temporary situation, and now it is correcting with our prices rising to get in line with the rest of the country.  Then we get the jacking up of oil prices related to world tensions, for which politicians are blaming speculators (and they may have a point).  Combined, wholesale prices rose 60 cents a gallon this week, and that is why we are at $3.69.  So, now what?  While we are at the mercy of the market forces, there is also a sense of panic in the air, which never amounts to anything.  So, all those people predicting $5 a gallon gas by Memorial Day should calm down.  They may be right, but that would be an incredible move in prices for which there is little precedent. –Ed Aboufadel

With spot up again by 20¢ today, it’s time to worry about a spike.

As Diether said in the comments of my last post, it is indeed time to worry, as the Spike line was 3-15¢ under across the board today. I’ll go with his prediction of $3.599 or $3.659 with Ohio on the low side, and Michigan on the high side. Patrick, the GasBuddy blogger who got his start here says it could push higher.

The big question is when? Tomorrow is the most likely to me, although the possibility of them waiting until Thursday since it’s so close to the last adjustment up is possible.

Now, I’d like to answer a couple things from the last post’s comments.

Diether stated that, “Some of the prices on that chart (Today In Oil) are mid-day quotes.”

Actually, they are all EOD, although I’m sure I gather the information from a different place. I get mine from DTN.

TimmP said

“Stupid question/suggestion. Would it be possible to have a running 60 day graph of the CBT spot prices of wholesale gasoline in the Spikeline (or anyplace) on this site?”

I don’t have the wholesale price, but I do have the price adjusted to the SpikeLine on the charts on the Spike Line page (look under “Features” at the top.) There are charts for Indy, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio there. Updating these takes some work, so I usually do it weekly. I’ve done what I can to improve the process, getting the time is my issue now. Your question has given me a thought about putting a chart on the Today In Oil page (also under features) as well. Again, time will dictate when that happens.

Happy price hunting, all. It’s gonna get rough the next few weeks/months!

Screwy Wholesale Prices in the Midwest

Comment on the January 24 posting:  Prices re-set on Friday of that week, after wholesale prices jumped, so let’s call it WRONG.

Monday, February 13, 2012, 6:45PM:  Sorry for the lack of writing lately.  I haven’t been sure what to say.  Wholesale prices jump around, and we get a price hike in one place, but not the other.  But what is going on today?  It seemed like we were setting up for a price reset to $3.49, but Chicago wholesale prices dropped a lot today, and we are now in a situation where we seem to be enjoying wholesale prices which are 50 cents cheaper than New York wholesale prices!  So, here’s the game plan for the rest of the week:  retail prices in Speedway country should continue to drop, maybe as low as $3.09, but if anything happens to cause the Chicago wholesale prices to shoot back up, we’ll get a price hike.  Keep an eye on the price signs!  -Ed Aboufadel

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