Here’s my 9-9-9 plan: $2-point-9-9-9!

Comment on Wednesday’s prediction:  No price hike and lower prices — CORRECT!

Monday, November 21, 2011, 8:15PM:  Energy futures took big drops this past Thursday, so it is a realistic possibility that you will be able to buy gas in the Grand Rapids area for $2.99 by next Monday.  Let’s have fun:  that’s a prediction! –Ed Aboufadel

Updated: November 21, 2011 — 8:10 pm

20 Comments

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  1. LOL!!! Luv your prediction Ed – however, this being a holiday week, I filled up yesterday at $3.14 just to be safe. Happy Thanksgiving all!!

  2. Places in Holland are 3.08. 40-45 minutes north its $3.35 still. Hope we finally start to see prices drop like the rest of the state. Thank you! Happy Thanksgiving!

  3. I filled up this morning to be safe, too. Gasoline futures shot up yesterday for no apparent reason.

  4. 11:37 a.m. Wednesday (busiest travel day of the year)

    As of 10:53 this morning, the Sam’s Club in Comstock Park was reported at $3.019. The second lowest Grand Rapids area price reported was $3.129 at Marathon, Meijer, Speedway, and BP in the 2171 to 3757 vicinity on Plainfield Ave. NE. The Grand Rapids average is $3.226.

    In Kalamazoo, the lowest price is $3.129 at both locations in Parchment. The lowest price in Southwest Michigan is $2.989 in Sturgis, on the Indiana border. The Kalamazoo average is $3.200.

    The lowest reported price in Michigan is $2.939 in Reese, which is just east of Saginaw. The second lowest reported price in the state is $2.989 at numerous locations in Saginaw, Sturgis, and Freeland. The Michigan average is $3.236. The BP next to Detroit Metro Airport checks in at $3.699.

    The USA average is $3.346.

    I don’t know when we’ll see the lowest prices of the year, but it typically occurs around now, so now would be a good time to put gas in seldomly used vehicles.

  5. 11:55 a.m. Wednesday

    The lowest price currently reported in Holland (and adjacent townships) is $3.169 at Admiral on 24th St. The highest prices reported in Holland are $3.289 as of 11:51 this morning.

  6. 11:30 a.m. Friday

    The lowest price in Michigan now is $2.889 at both Admiral stations in Sturgis. The lowest price outside of Sturgis is $2.989 at 15 locations in Saginaw, including 6 Admirals, 4 Speedways, 2 Meijers, and a Kroger. The Michigan average is now $3.218.

    The lowest price in Grand Rapids remains $3.019 at the Sam’s Club on Alpine in Comstock Park, while the second lowest price has fallen to $3.089 on Plainfield at Admiral and Marathon. The Grand Rapids average is $3.202.

    Prices in Holland are currently reported at $3.169 to $3.229.

    The lowest price in Kalamazoo-Plainwell-Paw Paw is still in Parchment, now at $3.099. The Kalamazoo average is $3.183.

    The national average is $3.340.

    Ohio currently has the nation’s 8th lowest state average. Albuquerque, New Mexico has the lowest metro average: $2.869. That’s only 19.5¢ higher than their year ago average, while the national average is 47¢ higher than it was a year ago.

    With Wednesday’s closing Chicago spot being $2.4727, the Michigan spike line is currently $3.120902. New York December futures are currently down 3.31¢ to $2.4846. If wholesale prices don’t come down on Monday, we could get a reset on Tuesday, November 29.

  7. 12:24 p.m. Sunday

    For the moment, the lowest reported price in the Grand Rapids area is $3.009 at the Admiral on Plainfield Ave. NE and Julia St. NE in Grand Rapids. The second and third lowest prices are also on Plainfield, at Marathon ($3.029) and Meijer ($3.089). The Sam’s Club on Alpine Ave. in Comstock Park that had been $3.019 is now reported at $3.119. The Grand Rapids average is $3.166.

    Prices in Holland range from $3.139 at Family Fare grocery store to $3.199 at Exxon and 2 Mobils.

    In Kalamazoo, the lowest price remains $3.099, but it is now at the BP in Richland. The stations in Parchment have gone up to $3.119. The Kalamazoo average is $3.179.

    The lowest price in Michigan remains $2.889 at the 2 Admirals, a Speedway, and a Murphy USA (Wal-Mart) in Sturgis. The second lowest price in Michigan remains $2.989 in Saginaw, Freeland, and Jackson. The Michigan average is $3.207.

    The USA average is $3.322.

    It looks like the Chicago market has not traded since the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. New York January gasoline futures are currently up 3.77¢ to $2.4919.

  8. ChrisDG74, Cincinnati, OH

    SW Ohio is jumping to $3.299 right now (from as low as $2.949). I would imagine MI and IL will be seeing spikes in the next day or so.

  9. Speedway went up to $3.359 today in Michigan, but it remains $2.889 in Sturgis.

  10. Ed’s prediction can be labeled as correct, as there is a SINGLE station in the greater Grand Rapids area currently (11:48 a.m.) reported at or below $2.999: Admiral, Plainfield Ave. NE and Julia St. NE in Grand Rapids at $2.989.

    New York December futures are currently up 6.23¢ to $2.5112.

    Still no update on the Chicago spot since Wednesday. It is not surprising that there was a reset today (I predicted one for tomorrow on November 18), but we couldn’t make a prediction without a more current Chicago number.

  11. 12:47 p.m. Monday

    The Chicago spot finally updated. It is now down 4.25¢ (1.719%) to $2.4302.

    Using last week’s rack adjustment, that would put the Michigan spike line currently at $3.075852. That would make this a 28.3148¢ reset, though they probably made the reset based on last week’s numbers. The Michigan average yesterday was $3.207, so maybe they could have gone another day before this reset.

  12. Ya missed this jump Ed, ya missed it!

  13. Gas never made it down to $2.99, instead they raised the price at the pump to $3.35 and this web site never warned us that the price increase was coming. This one took me and I am sure a good many others by complete surprise. What happend?!

  14. Yes, gas did make it to $2.999. The prediction was “you will be able to buy gas in the Grand Rapids area for $2.99 by next Monday.” That did in fact happen, if only at the Admiral on Plainfield Ave. at $2.989. As of 6:00 p.m. today, that station is reported at $3.339.

    If you are complaining that this site did not warn you, remember this is a hobbyist site and no one is getting paid, so you should be happy with anything you get. This is hardly the first time there was not an alert. In fact, this is the second missed reset this month: http://www.thegasgame.com/2011/10/28/on-gov-snyders-gas-tax-proposal/#comment-3350

    Further, this was following a major holiday weekend. To make a warning would have required someone to take time away from their holiday for research and posting. Most importantly, as I noted above, the Chicago spot market data we use for the predictions had not been updated since Wednesday evening. While it was possible to suggest that a post-holiday increase was possible (as I did on November 18), no hard prediction could be made because we did not have fresh data.

    Finally, the Chicago spot market had a healthy decline on Monday, following a large increase on Wednesday before Thanksgiving. If stations had to buy fuel all holiday weekend at that high Wednesday price, then the price being charged now is to recover losses over the holiday weekend.

  15. Diether, I like this site and I myself was just pokin fun at the creator. I agree that trying to predict prices in this market is like trying to predict Kardashian wedding plans…so be it. We have to buy at what its priced at when the tank gets low. I view this site as just another tool in the game of getting fuel at a good price. In the long run we save a few bucks a year? Oh well. I get .15 off with the Mobil card and pay the bill off every month. It helps! This site helps too.
    I always read your stuff Deither. You take the time to do some rather deep research that the rest of us have neither the time nor inclination to do. Thank you!

  16. Yes, I took your comment as being playful, Dan. I was replying to Tom. Not only is no one getting paid for this site, whomever owns it (apparently still Patrick) is losing money, since there are no ads on this site and someone must pay something for web hosting and domain registration, even if a small amount.

    *****

    Would you trade a higher sales tax for paying less at the pump?

    http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/11/would_you_trade_a_higher_sales.html

    The proposal is to eliminate the 19¢ per gallon Michigan gasoline tax and raise the general sales tax to 7%, with the extra 1% dedicated to road funding. It would take a statewide vote to raise the sales tax by amending the constitution. I am not in favor of raising the general sales tax to pay for roads.

  17. Even if that passed, they would find a way to reinstitutionalize the gas tax because there still wouldn’t be enough money – IMHO!! What happened to all the money from the lottery going to schools???? Just an example.

  18. Consider buying gas today. We might get a reset to $3.399 in Michigan tomorrow or Wednesday. We’ll have to see where the market ends today to know one way or the other.

    The Michigan average is currently $3.272. The only place in the state with gasoline below $3.039 is Sturgis, where the two Admiral stations are causing Speedway and Murphy USA (Wal-Mart) to sell for $2.869. The other 4 gas stations in Sturgis are $3.099, $3.099, $3.119, and $3.199.

    New Mexico is the only state with an average below $3: $2.965.

    *****

    Michigan Lottery – Where the Money Goes

    http://www.michiganlottery.com/where_the_money_goes

    “The Michigan Lottery has contributed … more than $600 million in 11 of the past 13 fiscal years.”

    “Lottery revenues comprise approximately 6 – 6.5 percent of the School Aid Fund”

    So, while 2010’s contribution of $701.3 million is a lot of money, it is small compared to the $12.89 billion school aid fund for fiscal year 2011.

    The following is from the New York Times article titled “For Schools, Lottery Payoffs Fall Short of Promises”:

    “In some states, lottery dollars are pooled with other funds, making it impossible to determine how much the lottery benefits schools. That is the case in Michigan, Texas and Illinois.

    Because legislators in these states decide school budgets well in advance of knowing what lottery revenue will be, lottery money is just another part of the overall budget. If the lottery dollars are below projections, the state makes up the shortfall with money from other sources, or in some cases, simply gives schools less money. If the lottery dollars exceed projections, the state uses some of the money for other programs.

    “Legislators merely substitute general revenue funds with lottery dollars so the schools don’t really gain any additional funding,” said O. Homer Erekson, dean of the business school at the University of Missouri in Kansas City, who co-wrote a national study on lottery money and school financing.”

  19. Gary is the only metro in Michigan, Indiana, or Ohio showing higher average prices today, up 0.7¢ since yesterday. The 12:55 update of the Chicago spot was up only 0.36¢ to $2.5623. New York January gasoline futures are nearly unchanged, down 0.22¢.

  20. In Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio, the only metropolitan areas to see average gas prices increase over the past 24 hours were Ann Arbor (1.2¢) and Flint (0.7¢). I think we should expect a reset in Michigan to $3.399 tomorrow (Wednesday, December 7).

    New Mexico still has the lowest state average in the nation, but went up 5.4¢ yesterday to $3.019. The Hawaii average went up 12.4¢ yesterday to $4.187, the only state with an average above Alaska’s $3.883.

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