Comment on the July 8 posting: To predict that prices will fall over the weekend isn’t much of a prediction, so I won’t score it.
Monday, July 18, 2011, 12:15PM: Retail prices have been falling nicely the past several days. We see prices in the $3.60’s pretty much everywhere, and we are as low as $3.51 in Kentwood. In terms of wholesale prices, I estimate the 0-cent margin price as I write this to be about $3.59, so we do have the ingredients for a price hike to $3.79. What makes this less clear, though, are the turbulent markets in New York and elsewhere. There are jitters about defaults in Madrid, Rome, and Washington which appear to be causing stock markets to drop, and that usually means lower gas prices. At the same time, certain commodities like gold and silver and rising, and oil prices have been holding up. So, I am going to predict a price re-set in the next two days to $3.79, with a bigger chance than usual of being wrong, since it is hard to predict what is going to happen next with these default situations. — Ed Aboufadel