Comment on the June 29 prediction: Prices rose to $3.75 on June 30, as predicted, so that was CORRECT. Then, I took a trip out East, and prices rose again on July 5 to $3.89. While my prediction success rate is quite good, I’ll admit that some hikes occur independent of my postings. The lesson: if I don’t have a new posting, that doesn’t necessarily mean the coast is clear.
Friday, July 8, 2011, 1:15PM: The stock market hit a recent low on June 27, and so did wholesale prices as tracked by RBOB and Danaher. (Thanks for the link, Bill!) We’ve seen stocks jump 6%, and wholesale prices have gone from about $2.68 to $3.05 (about 14%). Of course, retail prices have followed, and I got a little worried yesterday when stocks, oil, and gas trading all was up strong. It doesn’t look like we are going to get another hike today. The hike on Tuesday to $3.89 was a bit surprising — it seemed to be pushing the margins a bit more than usual — but now with higher wholesale prices, the 20-cent margin price is in the $3.89-$3.99 range. So, if there was a hike today, it would be to $3.99, and it looks like they decided not to bother. Have you noticed, though, that prices have stuck for the most part near $3.89 all week? Looking ahead, a weaker market today will keep a lid on prices. Hard to believe we have some $3.63’s in Kentwood. Those prices shouldn’t fall much further, but expect those $3.89’s to fall somewhat over the weekend. Then we’ll see what happens next week.