After a silly hike attempt to $3.59, the real deal is coming on Thursday!

Comment on the June 24 prediction:  Prices kept falling until Tuesday afternoon, so the prediction was CORRECT.

Wednesday, June 29, 9:30PM:  I’ve been driving around Grand Rapids the past day and a half, seeing some stations hike prices to $3.59, others keeping prices in the low $3.40’s, prices going up to $3.59 and then back down to $3.41, and it isn’t clear if Meijer or Speedway started this.  It doesn’t matter, though.  Stocks, oil, silver, etc. have all been rallying this week, and the 0-cent margin price tonight is around $3.55.  They will raise prices tomorrow to the $3.69-$3.79 range, and all the stations will follow suit without complaint, just in time to have a great Independence Day weekend!

Updated: June 29, 2011 — 8:25 pm

13 Comments

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  1. It looked a lot like Meijer, due to the fact that it was not universal, a Speedway trait. And it’s due to another refinery outage, this time the Husky refinery in Lima, causing prices to rise. Or it’s just another reason to raise prices for the holiday weekend.

  2. Speedway has begun moving to $3.759 in Michigan. The first report was in Wayland at 10:18 a.m. ET.

  3. $3.859 is the price in east Michigan (e.g. Royal Oak, Ann Arbor, Milford, Taylor, Troy).

    $3.699 is the price in Indiana. The first report was at 10:30 a.m. in Greensburg. Not sure for Gary area yet, but that area usually goes higher.

    $3.659 appears to be the price in most of Ohio. The first report was at 9:52 a.m. in Youngstown.

    The Tuesday increase was initiated by Speedway. Meijer send their gas alert exactly at noon. http://twitter.com/meijer/status/85739306282520579 Only in extreme circumstances, like that extremely rare Sunday increase earlier this year, does Meijer go up before Speedway, from my experience. When the market goes to extremes, some independent stations do go up before Speedway, but not many.

  4. I guess all Meijer stores doesn’t always wait until 1:30 p.m.

    The Meijer on W. Main St. in Oshtemo Township (Kalamazoo) matched the west Michigan Speedway price ($3.759) by 11:08 a.m.

    A Meijer in Rochester Hills matched the east Michigan Speedway price ($3.859) by 11:08 a.m.

  5. Looks like the Admiral in Portage held out with Michigan’s lowest price of $3.239 until possibly as late as 2:38 p.m. I imagine there was quite a crowd there. Fortunately, they have an electronic sign for the big 52¢ increase to $3.759. You can imagine there were some pretty pissed off people in line when the price went up. Someone trying to get 20 gallons at that price would now have to pay an extra $10.40.

    Admirals in Lansing were still at $3.269 as of 3:25 and 3:37.

    We should see lots of reports from places we don’t normally see in Michigan with travelers headed to northern Michigan and the upper peninsula.

    While I know other Michigan cities commonly have stations that go higher than Speedway, it doesn’t normally happen in Kalamazoo and Grand Rapids. However, today appears to be one of those rare occasions where stations in Kalamazoo are going higher than Speedway. There are 3 stations (2 Marathons and 1 Shell) that have gone to $3.799. In Grand Rapids, only 1 station has gone above Speedway, a Shell in Cutlerville at $3.799.

    It looks like the closing price for Chicago spot is up 8.99¢ (3.074%) to $3.0148.

  6. Speedway’s leading a charge up to $3.899 in west Michigan this morning. The earliest west Michigan report was at 10:25 a.m. in Oshtemo Township (Kalamazoo).

    Here are other regional prices:

    $3.959 in southeast Michigan (e.g. Monroe, Novi, South Lyon, Howell, Roseville, Ypsilanti, Whitmore Lake, Macomb, Commerce Township)

    $3.959 in northwest Indiana (e.g. Michigan City, La Porte, Portage, Chesterton, Valparaiso)

    $3.799 in the rest of Indiana, including Indianapolis

    $3.699 in Ohio

    The Chicago spot is only up 0.715¢ (0.238%) to $3.01135 this morning.

    New York gasoline for August delivery is only up 1.15¢ to $2.9841 this morning.

    In the past 8 hours, no Meijer stations have been reported higher than $3.829 (in Warren) and none have yet matched Speedway’s increases as of 12:38 p.m.

    I don’t know how much staying power this increase will have. So far, only a Shell in Vicksburg is reported as having matched the new Speedway price in the Kalamazoo area.

  7. The first Meijer in Michigan reported to have matched this morning’s Speedway increase was in Rochester Hills at 12:37 p.m.

    Since my last post, the Stadium Dr. BP in Kalamazoo (12:41 p.m.) and a Citgo in Lawton (12:47 p.m.) have matched Speedway’s price in the Kalamazoo area.

    In the Grand Rapids area, a BP in Ada is reported as having gone up almost an hour before the first report of a Speedway up in the Grand Rapids area:

    10:59 BP, 7100 Fulton, Ada
    11:48 Marathon, 781 68th St SE, Cutlerville
    11:56 Speedway, 5173 Broadmoor Ave SE, Kentwood
    12:06 Speedway, 2360 28th St SW, Wyoming
    12:17 Speedway, 9266 Cherry Valley Ave SE, Caledonia
    12:29 Speedway, 4390 Byron Center Ave SW, Wyoming

    Prior to the increase to $3.899, the lowest prices in the Grand Rapids area were $3.599 at 9 stations in Kentwood and southeast Grand Rapids. I have repeatedly noticed it takes the Speedways in the Grand Rapids area longer to start going up. The Kalamazoo area is usually among the first cities where Speedway increases are seen.

  8. So now what is going on with the area gas prices, I see we have a very unexpected after the 4th of July holiday gas spike up to $3.89! What in the world is going on here?

  9. Diether Haenicke

    I wouldn’t call the increase of Tuesday, July 5 to $3.899 “very unexpected” at all. The spike line sat there all weekend suggesting it was a possibility. The increase to $3.759 (west Michigan) on Thursday, June 30 was not a full profit margin increase. Then, the Chicago spot went up something like 8¢ on Friday, July 1. So, about half of the Tuesday, July 5 increase was for the higher Friday Chicago spot and the other half was for a full profit margin increase. It is also quite common (I believe) for Speedway to have an increase on the first business day following a major holiday weekend.

    However, I am not aware of anyone predicting an increase for yesterday, other than the quiet suggestion from the spike line.

    I guess what we (Michigan lower peninsula, Indiana, Ohio) are waiting for now is the Husky Energy refinery in Lima, Ohio to come back on line. I looked for news updates and don’t see any, so I guess they’re still on schedule to resume production this Friday (10 days after their unplanned shutdown). I hope their own website is the best place to find status updates: http://www.huskyenergy.com/

    The Chicago spot closed down 2.355¢ (-0.781%) today to $2.9926.

    New York gasoline for August delivery is currently up 1.76¢ to $2.9950.

    WTI oil for August delivery is currently down 29¢ to $96.60. The highest priced oil future contract is currently $102.32 for November 2013. All of the near term oil futures contracts are below $100 until May 2012. After that all out to December 2019 are above $100.

  10. Diether Haenicke

    Here are some interesting facts about Husky Energy’s Lima, Ohio refinery from http://www.huskyenergy.com/downloads/abouthusky/publications/factsheets/FS_2009_Lima_Refinery.pdf

    “Husky’s Lima Refinery produces 80,000 barrels per day of gasoline, 25 percent of the amount consumed in Ohio.”

    “The refinery is designed to operate 24 hours a day, seven days a week, 365 days a year with a scheduled maintenance shutdown every five years.”

    “Approximately 80 percent of crude oil processed is domestic. The balance comes from the North Sea and West Africa.”

    New York gasoline for August delivery is currently up 8.24¢ to $3.08.

    WTI oil for August delivery is currently up $2.03 to $98.68. The highest priced contract through December 2019 is $103.89 for December 2013.

    One U.S. dollar currently buys 95.87¢ Canadian.

    One Canadian dollar currently buys $1.0431 U.S.

  11. Diether Haenicke

    Chicago spot gasoline closed up 5.690¢ (1.901%) today to $3.0495.

    New York gasoline settled up 12.94¢ today to $3.1270.

    Oil settled up $2.02 to $98.67.

    Current retail averages:

    $3.618 Ohio
    $3.742 Indiana
    $3.828 Michigan
    $3.833 Illinois

    $3.578 Akron, Ohio (lowest in Great Lakes)
    $3.660 Champaign (lowest in Illinois)
    $3.680 Evansville (lowest in Indiana)
    $3.805 Detroit (lowest in Michigan)

    $3.832 Kalamazoo (3rd highest in Michigan, 13th highest in nation, same as San Francisco)
    $3.837 Grand Rapids (2nd highest in Michigan, 11th highest in nation)
    $3.852 Flint (highest in Michigan, 9th highest in nation)
    $4.011 Chicago (highest in nation)

  12. Here in Minnesota we had an increase to $3.69 on tuesday, and minutes ago i saw SA resetting to 3.85. Gotta love two increases within days of each other.

  13. Diether — thanks for your updates. They are an added benefit to this blog. I’m not able to keep up and post the way you do, so I want to let you know I appreciate it.

    Ed

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