Enough of this $4.29 nonsense!

Comment on the April 24 prediction:  It was CORRECT, as prices rose the next day to $4.17.  Then we saw $4.19 last Thursday, and $4.29 this past Monday.

Tuesday, May 3, 2011, 9:00PM:  I want $4.29 to be the high price for the year.  You do, too.  It would be curious if that turned out to be the case, in that $4.25 was the high in July 2008.  Here are some reasons for hope:

1.  I maintain, as do many others, that the continued thrust upwards in the prices of energy, gold, stocks, etc., is primarily due to the ultra-loose policy of the Federal Reserve, known as “qualitative easing”, which has been the main contributor to a weak US dollar.  The second round of QE, which started last fall, is ending in the next few weeks.  I would bet that QE3 doesn’t happen, because of political pressure.

2.  I also maintain, as do many others, that one contributor to high gas prices has been speculation in the energy future markets.  Actually, I think those markets are broken, with people effectively hording gasoline by using future contracts, which isn’t the purpose of future contracts.  It isn’t illegal, but it isn’t in the best interest of our society for those markets to have the rules that they do.  Speculators, though, can get too greedy, and they can then get slaughtered.

3.  That is happening this week in the silver market.  The silver ETF (stock symbol SLV) has demonstrated a classic “parabolic blow-off” lately, and those “investors” who bought SLV at $48 on Friday have lost nearly 20% of their “investment” the past two days, as it is trading this evening at about $40.  Sell-offs like this are not isolated, and don’t be surprised if gold is next, then oil and gas, and then stocks.  Here is a chart of SLV:

4.  I believe the end of Bin Laden by US forces is actually going to trigger reduced tension in the Middle East, as we start pulling our troops out of the area.

Yes, I know I sound like one of those “perma-bears”, trying to stitch together a number of ideas into an analysis.  But markets do not go up forever, and it is time to say “enough”!

For future reference, here’s a chart of gas prices since 2005, posted on The Big Picture:

— Ed Aboufadel

Updated: May 3, 2011 — 8:05 pm

7 Comments

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  1. Here is a blogger who has the complete opposite view that I do. If his predictions come true, we could be seeing $5 gasoline by June:

    http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2011/05/greatest-profit-potential-of-last.html

    Basically, he thinks the final collapse of the dollar hasn’t happened yet.

  2. Diether Haenicke

    Gasoline futures have fallen below $3.30, currently down 3.34¢ to $3.2960.

    For the moment, the lowest reported gas prices in Michigan are in South Haven:

    * $3.979 at the Village Market Express (9:06 a.m.)

    * $3.989 at Marathon (10:44 a.m.)

    * $3.999 at Shell (10:43 a.m.)

    In a 3-way tie for third place is the Phillips 66 in Allegan with $3.999 at 8:16 this morning.

    At 2:45 yesterday, the price of gas on Drummond Island, Michigan was $4.959. After that, a BP in Romulus at I-94 exit 198 again takes the top spot in Michigan with $4.499. I’m guessing that gas station is located somewhere near Metro Detroit airport car rentals.

    The current Michigan average is $4.253, up from $2.969 this time last year.

    The current U.S. average is $3.961, up from $2.933 this time last year.

    There are currently 13 states plus Washington DC averaging $4+ with Washington being the newest addition. Massachusetts and Maryland are on the bubble for $4.

  3. I posted on the Facebook page about refineries being down in the area causing a run up of prices here in the PADD2. We are about 20¢ higher than our Group3 brethren to the west. Once the refineries are back up and running, we should see a turn in prices.

  4. Diether Haenicke

    Wow!

    Gasoline futures are currently down 9.53¢ to $3.2272, after closing yesterday at $3.3225.

    The only bad news is the blog entry Ed posted predicted a dip in prices before a race to record highs.

    At the moment, South Haven and Allegan still lead Michigan with the lowest prices of $3.979 to $3.999 reported between 6:50 and 8:12 this morning.

    The Michigan average has fallen to $4.240 and national average has risen to $3.966.

  5. Diether Haenicke

    Super Wow!

    Gasoline futures are currently down 23.25¢ from yesterday’s close to $3.0900!

  6. Chicago spot is down 32 cents. Biggest drop. Biggest spike line deviation. I hope this sticks. Prices should start dropping soon.

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