Month: May 2011

Memorial Day Weekend Reading

Comment on the May 18 prediction:  Prices continued falling for a week, into the $3.70s, so that prediction was CORRECT.

Thursday, May 26, 2011, 1:00PM:  Unfortunately, I didn’t have anything to say before the hike to $3.99 yesterday.  There is something going on with floods and refineries and the stock market that is causing wholesale prices to bounce around, but I had no clear prediction to make.  So, for Memorial Day weekend, we are just about at $4 a gallon.  Here is your reading for the weekend:  musings about $4 gas from Greg Beato.  An excerpt:

“Indeed, while the gas that cost 36 cents per gallon in 1970 would only cost $2 per gallon today, the average fuel economy for cars in that era was approximately 13.5 miles per gallon. In contrast, a 2011 Ford Fiesta gets 28 miles per gallon in the city and 37 miles per gallon on the highway — so until gas prices top $4 per gallon, Fiesta drivers are actually paying less per mile for gas than the drivers of the 1970s did. And they’re not paying a premium to achieve such efficiencies — the Fiesta starts at $13,320 (that’s just $2312.72 in 1970 dollars).”

Lower prices should continue

Comment on last Wednesday’s prediction:  It took a few days, but gas is now below $4 all over town, so the prediction was CORRECT.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011, 7:15AM:  Wholesale gas prices took another kick in the teeth on Monday, with a 50-cent drop since my May 3 rant (according to AXXIS).  This morning, I calculate the 0-cent margin price to be around $3.80, and with $3.92 being the lowest price in town, I predict lower prices still. — Ed Aboufadel

Wholesale Yo-Yo

Comment on the May 5 prediction:  I filled up Tuesday morning in Allendale at $3.99 a gallon, so the prediction was CORRECT.

Wednesday, May 11, 2011, 8:45PM:  So far this month, we’ve seen some crazy moves on NYMEX.  The “RB” wholesale price went from $3.46 a gallon, to $3.09 last Friday, then $3.37 yesterday, and $3.12 today.  Retail prices have been dragged along, from $4.29 to $3.99, then a hike yesterday to $4.19 (sorry for no prediction on that one).  With today’s 25-cent drop at the wholesale level, we should head back below $4 (that’s a prediction), unless we get another crazy bounce like on Monday and Tuesday.  Longer term, this volatility is a good sign for gas prices, because this is the kind of behavior you see when markets change directions. — Ed Aboufadel

Big turnaround, especially in Indiana.

Everything that could go wrong seemed to today, especially for Indy/Indiana. Nationally prices went up about 20¢, reversing some of the losses of last week due to a Louisiana refinery issue. Chicago is also battling refinery issues, and PADD2 is now at an 11¢ premium to Group 3. For Indiana, we also lost 3¢ to Chicago’s rack this week, meaning higher prices all around.

Look for a spike up in all areas tomorrow.

Wholesale gasoline prices drop 25 cents today. Speedway, it’s your turn!

Thursday, May 5, 2011, 9:30 PM:  Wow.  I wrote Tuesday night about the plunge in silver prices, “don’t be surprised if gold is next, then oil and gas, and then stocks.”  I wasn’t predicting that this would happen this week!  Today, though, as you may have heard elsewhere (including in the comments of our previous post), wholesale prices dropped about a quarter dollar a gallon, and unprecedented one-day drop, and gold and stock prices were down, too.  Will this continue on Friday?  That isn’t the point of this web site.  The point is to predict that retail prices will start dropping significantly, perhaps starting tomorrow, heading for below $4 a gallon.  So, c’mon Speedway and friends, you love to pass along those wholesale hikes.  Time to pass along this steep drop! — Ed Aboufadel

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