Month: January 2011

Sometimes there is no prediction to be made

Comment on the January 25 prediction:  I was WRONG big time, as prices hiked again to $3.19 on Thursday.

Monday, January 31, 2011, 3:25PM:  As you may know, the tensions the past few days in the Middle East are pushing energy prices higher, and now we are in Blizzard Media Panic mode.  Right now, gas is $3.09 in Lowell, closer to $3.19 most other places.  Current wholesale prices should keep things close to $3.19.  However, I am going to fill up on the way home today, because I don’t know what is going to happen this week. — Ed Aboufadel

Ed was correct, but the market just spiked up 10¢ today

With tomorrow being the most popular spike day, and the markets closing up ten cents today, things are shaping up for us to have a spike up tomorrow. Indiana saw 92% of the Speedways go up today, but not uniformly, to an average of $3.12. Other areas won’t fare as well, and Indiana could see this, too.

Predictions
Indiana: $3.15-3.19
Michigan, Ohio and NW Indiana: $3.19-3.25

Now we can expect prices to drop

Comment on the January 16 prediction:  We got the hike the next day, back to $3.19.  CORRECT.

Tuesday, January 25, 2011, 4:30PM:  The past month, the media has started to get worked up over gas prices, which usually means it is time for prices to drop.  It appears that this is one of those times, as wholesale oil, gasoline, gold, etc. have all been dropping in price this week.  We should start seeing results at the pump soon, with lower prices predicted at least until Monday. — Ed Aboufadel

Back to $3.19 on Monday?

Comment on the January 4 prediction:  Prices rose to $3.19 on January 6, so the prediction was CORRECT.

Sunday, January 16, 2011:  Wholesale prices have been steady at about $2.50 since Christmas.  That has led to price re-sets to $3.19 when the retail price has gotten near $3.  You can actually get gas for less than $3 at certain places around time, so we are primed for a price hike to $3.19 again, echoing what other commentators are saying.  Monday?  If not, then Tuesday.  — Ed Aboufadel

Spike back to $3.10+ possible soon.

I won’t do my numbers for another couple hours, but I am seeing a sharp uptick in futures today, almost up 5 cents in Chicago at closing. I don’t believe we will see a spike over the weekend, but it is a possibility. Keep an eye out for a spike in the coming days, more likely Monday than any other day.

Prices Staying Above $3

Comment on the December 12 prediction:  Prices rose the next day to $3.05, so the prediction was CORRECT.  We also had two more price hikes in December, to $3.09, and then $3.19.  Prices ended the year around $3.09.

Tuesday, January 4, 2011:  I apologize for the long time since my last posting.  I’ve been busy with the holidays, having my car hit by a deer, and some minor surgery to my nose, but I am back to work now, and trying to figure out what is going on with gas prices.  Usually prices are lowest at Christmastime, so this on-going climb since August has been pretty disturbing.  As we’ve noted many times, though, gas prices continue to be locked in with stock prices.  Despite yesterday’s rally in the stock market, the move in oil and gas was more muted.  Based on futures and wholesale prices, retail prices are in a $2.99-$3.19 range, which is exactly what they are right now.  So, I am going to predict a price re-set back to $3.19 by the end of the week.  — Ed Aboufadel

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