The last spike was a weird one. Indiana’s spike was too soft, and they are back under the Spike Line again. Ohio had no spike at all, and should have one soon. Michigan’s spike, however, was juuuuuust right.
The Goldilocks reference aside, it concerns me this time of year that predicting spikes is more difficult than normal. We are getting ready for the summer blend to roll out in the next month. When refineries started making it, the Chicago Spot shot up 11 cents in one day. But we didn’t see a spike from it until it shot up 5 cents the two days after that.
So it is hit or miss. Could Michigan have finally rolled over, and Indiana is close behind, but Ohio is lagging? That would be as good an explanation as any.
In short: If you aren’t in Michigan, expect a spike tomorrow.
We are in spike line territory in all areas. We should receive a spike tomorrow. Expect the target price to be around $2.85-89 in Indiana and Michigan, $2.79-85 or one slot down in Ohio, and $2.89-95 or one slot up in NW Indiana.
A tip of the hat to the Cincy GasBuddies for the PITuesday reference. It stands for Price Increase Tuesday.
Comment on the March 16 prediction: After I filled up Wednesday morning, prices rose Wednesday afternoon to $2.89, but not $2.99. Pretty much CORRECT!
Friday, March 26, 2010, 4:00 PM: Since the last price hike a week and a half ago, wholesale prices have been drifting lower, while retail prices have held relatively firm in the $2.80’s, except for the gas price war in Allendale, where prices are in the low $2.60’s. I expect some price drops around town over the weekend and into next week, and then the crystal ball gets foggy. It might depend on the stock market. One more run towards Dow 11,000, and I think we’ll see another shot at $2.99 a gallon. If not, I’m not so sure. The low risk choice is to fill up the next time you are in Allendale. — Ed Aboufadel
Tuesday, March 16, 2010, 8:00 PM: Yes, it has been too long since my last post. My busyness continues, and then I traveled during my Spring Break last week. Looks like the “expect a hike” alert from 2/25 was right, because we have had two hikes since then, and I predict a nasty one coming up by the end of the week, perhaps all the way to $2.99. The culprits: the March switch-over to summer gas and, as I have been repeating over-and-over for a couple of years, now, the correlation between gas prices and the stock market. On 2/25/09, a gallon of gas was $1.71 in Standale, and the Dow was about to bottom out around 6600. Today, the Dow is heading towards 11,000, and gas is heading to $3 a gallon. I’d fill up Wednesday morning. — Ed Aboufadel
Just got off a call with an oil specialist, and we are speculating about the Chicago Spot’s movement today. Reports say we have switched over to summer blend, and the price is up almost 9 cents today, even in the face of the NYMEX RBOB’s almost 4 cent drop. I’ll have my numbers sometime after 6pm tonight, and I’ll give my best guess then, but for now, it’s looking good for a spike tomorrow.
I am showing all three Speedway states I monitor (Ohio is not) above the spike line. This means we are ripe for another spike tomorrow. If you need gas, it’s a good time to fill up tonight/tomorrow.