Month: February 2010

Not Liking What I See Coming in March

Comment on the February 8 prediction: There was no price hike that week, so the prediction was CORRECT.

Thursday, February 25, 2010, 12:45PM: I have been terribly busy the past two weeks, including a long weekend in San Diego for a conference. Thanks, Bill, for the great warnings you’ve been sending out.

We’ve had two price hikes to deal with in the past week, bringing us up to $2.69. What is next for gas prices? As I posted on February 8, historically we’ve seen prices rise in February and March, and this month has been no different. NYMEX futures for April, which are closely correlated to March retail prices, have been running a dime ahead of the March futures, and that suggests that price hikes will continue over the next few weeks. That’s not a prediction about the next few days, but I’m going to be on “expect a hike” alert the next five weeks.

****Spike warning****

I haven’t posted the numbers for today, yet. It’s looking like with Chicago shooting up 13 cents today in trading, and prices falling over the long weekend, we have shot under the spike line in most areas. Indianapolis is at -8¢, while Indiana and Michigan are at -1-2¢.

Fill up tonight if you can, in the morning most definitely. A spike is a brewing.

No hike this week expected

Comment on last Tuesday’s prediction: We got a hike the next day to $2.65, so the prediction was CORRECT.

Monday, February 8, 2010, 1:15PM: Wholesale prices got whacked late last week, so retail prices should follow this week. It is already $2.57 in Allendale, but we have room to go a lot lower, unless those wholesale prices turn around. A complicating factor is that historically we’ve seen prices rise in February and March as the turn to summer gas formulation can create supply disruptions. But for now, the prediction is no price hike this week. — EA

Keep an eye on Speedway in the morning

It is possible we will see a spike up tomorrow. The spike line has been crossed in Indy, Indiana and Michigan. It is -2 cents in Indy, but less than a cent in Michigan. Only history should keep it from happening. Wednesday is not the big spike day, Thursday is. Speedway will usually keep an eye on the DOE report and see if that causes the market to change course.

Keep an eye on Speedway in the morning, and the market throughout the day. If Speedway does not go up, but the market does, expect a Thursday spike.

I smell a price hike coming

Comment on the January 22 prediction: I think that prediction was WRONG. Stocks sold off, but we had prices rise to $2.65 in different parts of the region, although there wasn’t a complete price hike.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010, 11:15 PM: Wholesale prices dropped significantly late last week, as did the stock market, and retail prices have been following. But, wholesale jumps the past two days means a price hike is coming on Wednesday or Thursday, to the neighborhood of $2.69. — Ed Aboufadel

Weekly Report for 1/25-1/29/10

I will start doing a weekly report on Fridays with the following information.

($USD) Indy, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio
Chicago Spot Begin 1.9551
Chicago Spot End 1.8384
Chicago Spot Move DOWN -0.1167
($USD) Indy Indiana Michigan Ohio
Begin 2.4690 2.5490 2.6130 2.5520
End 2.5730 2.5810 2.6050 2.5150
Move UP 0.1040 UP 0.0320 DOWN -0.0080 DOWN -0.0370
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