Month: December 2009

Gearing up for another spike?

We had another bad DOE report, and the markets jumped up. Chicago is up almost 5 cents since yesterday, and up 25 cents since December 10th.

The spike line is close in Michigan. In Indiana it is still manageable. But with it being so close, and the recent moves we have seen, I am putting out an alert now. Keep an eye on the markets tomorrow. If Speedway doesn’t jump in the morning, I will do a mid-day report around noon tomorrow in The Spike Line, and will let you know where prices are headed on the markets. If they jump in the afternoon, you’ll be ready.

Gas prices, stocks, ending the year on a high note

Comment on the December 15 prediction: Prices re-set that Thursday to $2.55, so the prediction was CORRECT. Two more hikes have followed since.

Tuesday, December 29, 2009, 1:45PM: Well, we got a price hike to $2.69 late yesterday, due to rising wholesale prices the past two weeks. It probably goes hand-in-hand with the stock market hitting highs for the year this week, as energy and stock prices have been in sync for quite a while. This is rather disturbing, though, since retail gas prices tend to bottom out in December, and then climb from January through April. So, does that mean we are heading for $3 gas this winter? I don’t know. But stay tuned for further postings on this site. Happy New Year to all our readers! — Ed Aboufadel

Spike in progress II

We saw another spike again today late in the day. I think we would normally have seen this on Tuesday, but I don’t think the usual person is pulling the trigger. With the numbers the way they were I would have predicted a spike for tomorrow if they had not gone up today. Let’s hope this trend does not continue, as it makes the game a whole lot harder to play.

Fill up somewhere spike friendly if you can.

Spike in progress

I did not foresee the spike today, but I also couldn’t have predicted we would see the futures spike up as massively as they did today. This was sparked in part by a bad DOE report.

So fill up where it is still cheap if you can. Sorry I couldn’t give you advance warning.

Spike looming tomorrow

We should see a spike tomorrow. We have seen prices fall rapidly to meet the wholesale, which spent the last two days going up. Indiana has crossed the spike line, and Michigan is close behind. The big question is the price. Currently in Indianapolis we have seen all Kroger stations go up to $2.69. I don’t expect the spike to reach those levels. With the current spike lines at $2.41 in Indiana, and $2.423 in Michigan, we should expect a spike in the $2.51 area. For Michigan and NW Indiana, this could be 5-10 cents more.

For NW Indiana, this is due to the premium the Chicago Spot RBOB has over regular. For Michigan, just call it a hunch. The numbers don’t look spike worthy, but Michigan has been 6-10 cents above Indiana for about a week. This either means the gas stations have been greedy, or we are seeing supply issues. I really couldn’t tell you what’s going on without some spot prices from the racks in Michigan. But right now I can only speculate.

Expecting stations to balance their books this week, re-set to $2.52.

Comment on the December 8 prediction: No price hike, yes blizzard (a day later than the weather people said). CORRECT.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009, 3:40PM: I’ve got the 0-cent margin price at around $2.33 today, based on NYMEX and Chicago prices, and gas is $2.38 in Wyoming this afternoon. But, prices are still above $2.50 in select places around town, so what is going to happen? My prediction is a price re-set on Wednesday or Thursday to somewhere near $2.52, which won’t be a hike for certain gas stations. — Ed Aboufadel

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