The stat line goes like this:
Fair price: ( $1.9374+$0.6413 ) = $2.5787
Average selling price – fair price: ($2.537-$2.5787)=
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.0417
In other words, for Michigan, you are selling at more than a negative 4 cent margin by my numbers. In Indiana that is more than 6 cents, and that’s with 5 cents taken out of the fair price due to the Indianapolis rack being so much lower than Chicago’s. This usually means spike. But we are going into a weekend, and Speedway rarely goes up on Saturday and never has on Sunday since I have kept track.
I have seen weekend spikes up in price from local retailers. Companies like Schmuckal Oil in NNW Lower Michigan, Wesco in W Lower Michigan and Atlas Oil in Indiana, a few in Michigan and Kentucky (check out our links page to see their websites and see if their is a station in your area.) Meijer also has spiked up on the weekend.
My point is we are very close to a spike, and we may see the price spike up over the weekend/early next week. Keep an eye on your local retailers, as they may spike up, even if Speedway doesn’t. Good luck out there.
Sorry we haven’t posted on here for so long. It’s for a good reason, though… we haven’t had to. If prices aren’t going up, I usually won’t put a prediction here. But I do still update “Fair Price” threads on GasBuddy.com sites in Indy, Indiana, and Michigan daily. I might start posting something similar on the Gas Game’s Facebook page.
We are in grave danger of a spike, and soon. Michigan’s average is almost 2 cents above the break even point. Indiana is almost 9 cents above. We don’t usually see spikes on Wednesdays, but there is a possibility of one tomorrow. If it doesn’t come, and the bottom doesn’t fall out of the market, it will come on Thursday. I’m a little iffy on a price prediction, but $2.60-$2.75 seems about right in Indiana and Michigan. Since Michigan is paying a premium of 7 cents over Indiana right now, they will be on the high side of that. NW Indiana should see a 10 cent premium over Indiana’s price.
Comment on the August 3 prediction: Prices rose to $2.69 the next day, slightly below the $2.72-$2.82 range I predicted. But, I’ll call it CORRECT regardless.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009, 4:20PM: I spent last week near Cheboygan. Prices were frozen at $2.69 up there all week, while the games continued in Grand Rapids. Let’s see where we are today. Retail prices range from $2.41 to $2.64 right now, according to GasBuddy. NYMEX indicates wholesale prices around $1.88, which leads to a calculation of $2.41 as the 0-cent margin price — of course! So, I think we’ll see a hike before the end of the week, with the new price in the neighborhood of $2.59. — Ed Aboufadel
Comment on Thursday’s prediction: We got a hike on Friday to $2.59. CORRECT.
Monday, August 3, 2009, 2:00PM: Once again, stocks rally and so does energy prices. We are up at least 10 more cents at the wholesale level since Thursday, so another price hike is on its way. Look for retail prices in the $2.72-$2.82 range Tuesday or Wednesday. So, I’m agreeing with Bill! — Ed Aboufadel
Looking at the numbers, the averages here in the Speedway states are low compared to the Chicago spot’s break even price. This is due in part to the biggest climb in one day for wholesale in quite some time, 13 cents on the NYMEX, and 16 cents in the Chicago spot. Friday they went up again, and today is already up by 5 cents.
We may receive a late day spike today, and most definitely will see one by the usual time tomorrow morning. I see $2.70s being widespread, and some $2.80s being possible depending on what the markets end at today.