Michigan could slide, Indiana/Ohio/Illinois could spike
3 comments Wednesday, 06-17-09 | Posted By Bill Eby | Predictions
Yesterday the Chicago spot bounded up to $2.12, sparking the belief in me that Speedway should spike up in all states it was in. Today the Chicago spot dropped back down to $2.07. This puts us in a very tricky area.
Michigan is well above the spike threshold, about 4 cents. Indiana on the other hand is below that threshold, by about 8 cents. We could see Michigan slide by for a second week without a spike, but that isn’t 100% certain as I don’t know if supply issues there are 100% clear.
The rest of the Speedway states are ripe for a spike after going more than a week without one. I expect them to go back up near $2.80, and probably on the low side of that. Since Michigan is still near $2.80 in average, the only reason to spike is from supply issues. It may get back up to $2.90 if that is the case.
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Well, 4th of July is coming up so ya KNOW they’re gonna spike at least once before then and more than likely two weeks in a row I would imagine, JMHO, given that the 4th is in 2 weeks. Would stand to reason we’d have a spike if not by the weekend, the first part of next week and also the week of the 29th. Again, JMHO.
I haven’t seen too much correlation between holidays and prices. Sometimes they avoid going up the week before a holiday (see Memorial day this year) sometimes they go up on the holiday (see Thanksgiving/New Years). Going up before or during the holiday historically doesn’t happen as much as it not going up, however, especially on the holiday.
And as I predicted . . . . spike we go!!