Yesterday the Chicago spot bounded up to $2.12, sparking the belief in me that Speedway should spike up in all states it was in. Today the Chicago spot dropped back down to $2.07. This puts us in a very tricky area.
Michigan is well above the spike threshold, about 4 cents. Indiana on the other hand is below that threshold, by about 8 cents. We could see Michigan slide by for a second week without a spike, but that isn’t 100% certain as I don’t know if supply issues there are 100% clear.
The rest of the Speedway states are ripe for a spike after going more than a week without one. I expect them to go back up near $2.80, and probably on the low side of that. Since Michigan is still near $2.80 in average, the only reason to spike is from supply issues. It may get back up to $2.90 if that is the case.