Comment on my June 23 posting: Prices have continued to fall for a week, so the prediction was CORRECT.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009, 9:30PM: I just want to share what I am looking at right now. The moderate jump in wholesale prices this week has given us a 0-cent margin price of about $2.45 and a 20-cent margin price near $2.69. Yet, this is also the range of prices right now in the area, with gas below $2.50 in Allendale and at $2.69 in Ada and Lowell. So, we could get a price hike before Independence Day to $2.69, but some places wouldn’t notice. Or, the stations at $2.69 could drop their prices while stations near $2.49 will probably keep their prices constant. So, I don’t feel like a prediction is warranted, but I hope readers understand the underlying dynamic right now. — Ed Aboufadel
If you haven’t already, do look at the previous post Ed put out about gouging in Michigan. These are good reads for those interested in the oil industry, too.
Now, on to business. With a spike up in everything oil/gas/diesel, we are very ripe for a spike tomorrow. I’m putting it at about 65% possible. The margins for Michigan and Indiana just fell below 0 today after riding a period of profit taking. It’s possible we won’t see a jump tomorrow as Speedway and the other stations wait for the weekly DOE report Wednesday for which direction we should see for the end of the week. But it’s been a while since the last one, I’m betting on a spike up to the $2.67-2.73 range.
Do fill up tonight/early tomorrow as spike protection.
With the Chicago spot falling 25 cents since the 17th, and average prices falling only 13 cents, there is still plenty of room for stations to keep dropping their price. Margins are right around 12 cents, as well. We should be seeing a mid-$2.50 average by the end of the weekend, and some spots dropping into the $2.30s in Indiana and Michigan.
As I write this, Michigan and Indiana are very close to dropping below the national average for the first time since the 18th of May for Indiana, and all the way back to the 18th of April for Michigan. I have started updating the Facebook account again, and I predicted on Wednesday that we should pass the national average Saturday in the $2.55-2.60 range. We are very close to seeing this happen.
So, you can follow us here at www.thegasgame.com, and we also have a Twitter account (@thegasgame) and the Facebook account. Three great ways to help yourself save money by following TheGasGame.
Comment on my June 11 posting: Prices made it to $2.69 last week, and then lower this week, so my prediction was CORRECT.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009, 4:30PM: The stock market/energy market correlation continues. Stocks topped out recently on June 12, a day after the price of a barrel of oil did, while NYMEX waited until June 16. Since then, NYMEX has dropped 20 cents, and Chicago wholesale prices are down nearly 50 cents since June 4. That means the good news for us will continue, as the 0-cent margin price using Chicago wholesale prices is about $2.39. That means prices will continue to fall by several cents a day at least for the rest of the week. Hey, Ada and Lowell — get with the program!
— Ed Aboufadel
With almost 24 cents between average selling price and a fair price based on the Chicago spot price, gas has nowhere to go but down right now. If you don’t have to fill up, hold off until prices do go down. Right now $2.50s aren’t out of the question, and are already being seen in some parts of Michigan, Indiana and Ohio.