Friday, April 24, 2009, 4:30 PM: Whew. Finals Week is over, and I have some time now to get back to the Game. Since my last post on April 12, we had a reset on April 16 to $2.05, and then another hike this past Tuesday to $2.09. Retail prices have been bouncing around while NYMEX prices have been pretty sedate, and the numbers indicate that the last hike was an attempt to close the recent “Chicago discount” that we have been enjoying. Tuesday’s hike to $2.09 was pretty much in line with NYMEX prices that day, based on the old tried-and-true formula posted on this site.
So, if we don’t have any discount or premium now (and it is harder to tell now that the AXXIS quotes are no longer available for free), what lies ahead for next week. Given today’s 4-cent rise on NYMEX, we have 0-cent margin price of about $1.93 and a 20-cent price of $2.14. Retail prices are mostly in the $1.99 to $2.09 range, so I would be looking for gentle drops in prices over the weekend and on Monday. On Tuesday, we could get a rise to $2.15 or so, but I don’t feel strongly enough about this to make a prediction right now. Things might look different on Monday.