Comments on recent predictions: With a hike on a warm St. Patrick’s Day, the March 14 prediction was CORRECT. Yesterday’s warning of a possible hike, labeled as a prediction, was WRONG.
Saturday, March 21, 8:45 AM: Wholesale-wise, we are 10 cents higher than we were early in the week when we got a hike to $1.99. That means that $2.09 is the obvious target price going forward, so I will re-iterate my prediction that we get a price hike, this time on Monday or Tuesday, to a new price in the $2.05-$2.19 range. Typically, prices rise throughout the month of March.
It is 7AM, and I am updating my spreadsheets. We could see a hike today to $2.09 or $2.19, because wholesale prices went up yesterday. Just be prepared.
As Speedway raised prices to $1.999 this morning, oil was busy having a rally of it’s own. The active April contract hit just shy of $50/bbl today, and tomorrow’s Department of Energy report may result in an extended oil rally (meaning higher gasoline prices).
The DOE report tomorrow is setting the stage for $50 oil. Good report, oil could show a good decline. The front month April contract resisted hitting $50 today, but May and June surpassed $50/bbl.
It’s going to be up to the DOE report. I’m almost to the point where I say if the DOE report is bad, oil will begin a longer rally (weeks/months?) and if it’s good, we could go back down to around $43.50 and wait.
Tomorrow either the bulls will be let out or the bears. I have a feeling we’re seeing the beginning of a oil rally that will last into Summer.
Having said all that, wholesale prices for gasoline also rose 5-cents today. Speedway and friends are in a pinch- do they wait and see if the DOE report is good or bad? Or do they raise prices Wednesday to $2.09 and hope the DOE report is good so they won’t have to raise THREE DAYS in a row?
We’ll see. I’m betting on no hike tomorrow, but Thursday it’s looking likely…. everything at this point depends on the 10:30am EDT release of the hyped DOE report.
This is only a test post. Please disregard it.
Saturday, March 14, 2009, 3:00 PM: Since the March 5 hike to $2.05, NYMEX and AXXIS numbers have bounced around but are basically where they were at on that day. Patrick is reporting that wholesale prices around Chicago have been pretty volatile down and back up, and that would explain $1.73 in Fort Wayne and $1.78 on Lake Michigan Drive today. Based on NYMEX/AXXIS, I have to predict that prices re-set on Monday or Tuedsay to the $1.99-$2.09 range.
Also, on the AXXIS site, there is a note that after April 15, that free service will be discontinued. I think they are on to us.