DON’T FILL THAT TANK TO “F”! Read why…
5 comments Friday, 10-10-08 | Posted By Patrick | Predictions
That’s right folks- we’re in a huge downward trend. I’ll be the first to say I screwed up! I filled up for $3.77 (wow, seems like a while ago!) just TWO WEEKS ago… I’m still burning through that tank in fact. Was that a mistake? YES! Is it a mistake to do the same thing today and fill to “F”? YES! We have much more of a drop in store for you.
Here is my prediction: UNDER $3 in the next 7-10 days in the Midwest (for the areas still over $3)! Nationwide, we should see it in 2 or so weeks!
Let me rewind to part of my SUMMER 2008 prediction I made on MAY 27, 2008:
Late May prices peak to $4+, slowly decline into early-to-mid June. Early July will have much of the same, people will be rejoicing when prices come under $3, but that doesn’t look entirely realistic as hurricane season approaches. Traders will begin focusing on any hurricane that develops, and starting in mid-August, we’ll see prices fluctuate quite a bit. If any Category 3/etc or higher hurricane strikes West of the Mississippi in the Gulf, expect gasoline to jump right back to Spring highs or even higher. Expect market fundamentals to kick in and we may see a large correction in gasoline prices. I think that with demand slowing late Summer and oil prices due to come back down, it will boost crack profit, which will entice refiners to make utilization rates climb all summer leading to a potential collapse in prices this fall/winter- perhaps as low as $2.50 starting in October and lasting through mid-November.
What I said in November, 2007:
Oil is due for a large correction. Should come back to $70 or $80 no problems… so until that happens we’re going to continue to get set up for a market correction (hopefully not a recession)
Ok, so I’m not a “professional”, but please tell me what you thought of my LONG TERM outlook. I guess I’m a bit boastful (more or less excited that I was closer than I thought)
We can expect prices to continue to fall folks. $2.99? It WON’T stop there. I’m now expecting to see my summer prediction come insanely close to what actually happened.
ONLY BUY what you need… a few gallons at a time. You’ll end up saving a few dollars per week- but it all adds up!
Patrick
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$2.99/gal at walmart in Grand Haven!!
As of this moment:
$2.519 at three Speedways in Canton, Ohio. These appear to be the lowest priced Speedways in the country at the moment, among 1,537 Speedway and Super America locations.
$2.639 at the lowest priced Speedway in Indiana, in Franklin.
$2.679 at the lowest priced Super America in Minnesota, in Inver Grove Heights.
$2.759 at the lowest priced Speedway in Michigan, in Sturgis (on the Indiana state line).
$3.109 at the lowest priced Speedway in Illinois, in Kankakee.
On the high end:
$3.349 at the highest priced Speedways in Michigan, one each in Traverse City and Grayling.
$3.399 at the highest priced Speedways in Indiana, two in Munster and one in Merrillville.
$3.799 at the highest priced Speedway in Illinois, in Chicago.
$3.939 at one Speedway in Lewis Center, Ohio. That number is so high, I wonder if it is accurate. While there are 3 other Speedways in Ohio $3.729 or above, maybe there is an error in transferring the current price.
$4.059 at the highest priced Speedway in West Virginia, in Bridgeport. Maybe it is in the mountains?
I would guess that most stations would have cheap enough gas in the ground by the end of today to safely be at $2.999 thanks to the 12 cent drop on Friday night. The only problem is that the future’s market is going up today (up about 9 cents right now). But, rack prices are still more than 35 cents higher than the NYMEX price, so a spike in the market might not get passed on to wholesale.
I was in the UP this weekend and stations up there are still $3.45-$3.50! I know that they probably pay 10-20 cents/gal more in freight than we do, but wow.
Jeffrey Alan Messer: Speedway hasn’t figured out yet that when they close a station for remodeling (they have done a lot the last few years) that they need to stop listing the price on their website. So, a lot of the times when 1 site looks real high or real low, it is because it hasn’t changed in weeks or months.
I would guess that those 4 high priced ones in OH are closed. The VW one might be right if they get gas from a terminal that is still experiencing shortages.
Wholesale prices went up around 11 cents last night which makes the $2.999 a 14 cent markup with today’s price. The market is already up 7-8 cents, if wholesale prices go up 7-10+ cents tonight, it will make $2.999 unprofitable.
It looks like about 75% of the MI Speedway stations are at or below $2.999. So, there is a pretty good chance that they will restore to $3.099 – $3.159 tomorrow if wholesale prices go up tonight.
I don’t know why this always happens when retail prices are around an even amount, the wholesale prices keep bouncing back and forth making $x.999 profitable then unprofitable. People always drag their feet going above a new dollar and are overeager to drop below it.
I have a feeling that we are going to be stuck on the $3 mark for awhile unless something major (good or bad) happens economy wise.
Hey – I filled up with Premium for 2.12 … I decided to treat my car to the benefits of lower gas prices …. Gas is around 1.89 at the cheap places in the Research Triangle of NC … 1.799 in Mebane – the cheap stops on I-40 exits 150-154 ….