Comment on the August 25 prediction: Prices did drop into the $3.70’s from $3.89, but not significantly due to the hurricanes. To be fair, I’ll label that prediction WRONG.
September 9, 2008, 7:15 AM: With the fall semester up-and-running at GVSU, I am planning on posting each Tuesday morning this semester. Using NYMEX alone, the 0-cent margin price this morning is $3.29 and the 20-cent margin price is $3.50, yet the lowest price in town is something like $3.67. NYMEX oil and gas prices continue to trend down, but the AXXIS numbers remain stubbornly high, and I believe that has been contributing to retail gas prices that aren’t in any hurry to drop substantially. The same NYMEX/AXXIS difference occurred a year ago and didn’t resolve itself until mid-October. Back then, a reasonable estimate for the wholesale price was the average of NYMEX and AXXIS, and if we use that again, we get a retail range of $3.58-$3.79. So, while I would hope that prices drop below $3.60 soon, we aren’t really set up for a prediction I would have any confidence in.
In addition, there is a comment from “Retailer” on our web site that prices to retailers went up 15 cents yesterday afternoon, which is often a harbinger of a price hike. I am going to wimp out and not make any predictions today, though.