Hard to be a prophet during hurricane season

Comment on the August 25 prediction:  Prices did drop into the $3.70’s from $3.89, but not significantly due to the hurricanes.  To be fair, I’ll label that prediction WRONG.

September 9, 2008, 7:15 AM:  With the fall semester up-and-running at GVSU, I am planning on posting each Tuesday morning this semester.  Using NYMEX alone, the 0-cent margin price this morning is $3.29 and the 20-cent margin price is $3.50, yet the lowest price in town is something like $3.67.  NYMEX oil and gas prices continue to trend down, but the AXXIS numbers remain stubbornly high, and I believe that has been contributing to retail gas prices that aren’t in any hurry to drop substantially.  The same NYMEX/AXXIS difference occurred a year ago and didn’t resolve itself until mid-October.  Back then, a reasonable estimate for the wholesale price was the average of NYMEX and AXXIS, and if we use that again, we get a retail range of $3.58-$3.79.  So, while I would hope that prices drop below $3.60 soon, we aren’t really set up for a prediction I would have any confidence in.

In addition, there is a comment from “Retailer” on our web site that prices to retailers went up 15 cents yesterday afternoon, which is often a harbinger of a price hike.  I am going to wimp out and not make any predictions today, though.

3 Comments

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  1. Chicago dif! Supply issues in Chicago vs NY is my guess for the hike of 15 cent rack increase last night. Currently this morning, electronic traders on the nymex are showing down 10 cents giving back most of yesterdays hike. We’ll see if it sticks.

  2. Nymex isn’t going to be much help for your predictions right now. This morning, the Nymex price is $2.67 and our rack prices are about $3.25, so a good 58 cent difference.

    I see a few Speedways listed at $3.959, so I assume that will be the magic number for the rest of the State. Our 0 cent margin is about $3.769 today, and there a plenty of stations below that price.

  3. in Jackson,Mi i seen regular at $3.95 at a Shell station

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