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Comment on the June 18 prediction:Â Prices rose to $4.15 last Thursday, as predicted.Â CORRECT.
Thursday, June 26, 2008, 3:15 PM:Â Because it seems like retailers’ margins are tight, or there is some sort of Chicago Summer Discount going on that isn’t reflected in the AXXIS prices, I’ve been trying to keep my tank close to full, at least when I can get gas for less than $4.09.Â Prices have not been hiked, though, in a week.Â But today’s ugliness in New York — oil and gasoline up, up, up, while the stock market is down, down, down — strongly suggests a hike tomorrow, probably to a new record price.Â Patrick posted this first, and I think he is right.
Fill’er up tonight! After a 7-cent drop yesterday on the market, prices have *already* shot right back up to what they were at the market open on Wednesday. $4.15 has been a popular re-hike amount lately, but I expect between $4.19-$4.25 tomorrow in Michigan depending on today’s final numbers. Since Midwest PADD dropped significantly this week, I think we might start having a little bit of a Chicago Premium to add, thus the $4.19-$4.25. Other states such as Indiana and Ohio may be a few cents less.
The DOE report yesterday was good for the most part, oil inventories posted a surprising gain, gasoline inventories rose if you exclude a drop in blending components, but Midwest PADD suffered and dropped 2 million barrels.
So, back to the re-hike discussion! A hike is likely, although not imminent, and may not happen yet tomorrow, BUT with prices under $4 happening, they are NOT likely to get ANY cheaper, so find a station under $4 and fill up tonight!
(I got gas for $3.93 yesterday!)
Today’s market slid over 13-cents per gallon on positive news coming out of China: they’re finally lowering subsidies on oil and fuel products.
The market immediately turned south after realizing that one of the biggest developing nations was now passing on higher prices to its consumers. This has the potential to turn the whole market around as traders finally realize that sustained oil and gasoline prices at these levels will kill off demand, even in developing countries that rely on it.
With the added news that the Saudi’s are increasing oil production, the market may correct… however, I doubt any correction to bring prices down more than $1 as oil stockpiles are tens of millions of barrels lower than last year, and oil inventories remain much below average.
We still may be poised for a mid-to-late summer decline, as long as Hurricane season stays in check.
For now, wait to fill up. Prices should moderate through the weekend, with potential of $3.95’s coming out within the next 5-7 days. We also may be poised for a jump in the market tomorrow. It’ll either be a small jump or another significant decline.
Comment on the June 11 posting:Â Prices rose Thursday to $4.15, which is less than $4.29, so the prediction was CORRECT.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008, 3:20PM:Â Wholesale prices have been stable at this high level, although they are up 4 cents today.Â I think Speedway and friends re-set prices again tomorrow, since at some places in town, gas is being sold below cost.Â Hard to determine the new price, since recent hikes have reflected a margin of much less than 20 cents, but my first guess would be a return to $4.15 like last Thursday, and maybe $4.19.Â $4+ gas is a temporary thing, right?
Comment on the June 5 posting:Â We got a price hike last Friday, as predicted, but only to $4.09. But, I’ll take the CORRECT credit anyway.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008, 4:00 PM:Â Wow!Â NYMEX prices have been jumping up and down the past week in extreme ways, and today it is up.Â I’m predicting a price hike tomorrow, to at most $4.29 but probably less than that.Â Using the current prices on NYMEX with a 20-cent margin, we get $4.29, but Speedway and friends have been working with lower and negative margins lately, so that’s why I say “probably less”.Â Prices like this are tough.Â It would be better if we lived in Missouri.