Month: November 2007

No price hike the past week? Then there will be one early next week!

Comment on last Sunday’s prediction:  A big turkey of a WRONG, as prices did not go up during Thanksgiving week.

Saturday, November 24, 2007, 2:00 PM:  The retailers gave us a Thanksgiving gift with no price hike near Thanksgiving.  It was surprising, given where wholesale prices are at, and I am more surprised to see prices as low as $2.90 on Alpine Avenue, which is definitely below cost the retailers are paying right now.  Well, let’s not dwell on this too much, but fill up Sunday night, as there can be no doubt that a hike to the $3.19 to $3.29 range is in the cards on Monday or Tuesday.

$100 oil the day before Thanksgiving? Count on it.

I’m sitting here waiting for oil to hit $100 per barrel. What new news is there? Nothing major. Just the traders and investors pouring billions into the crude markets. Is this going to affect us? Yes. $4 diesel and $3.25 gasoline should be commonplace unless something changes soon!

And guess what- for Spring…? how about $4 diesel AND $4 gasoline? It could be a reality if this keeps up.

Can you say recession?

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Back to $3.19 before Turkey Day

Comment on Wednesday’s prediction: There was no hike, and gas is as low as $3.03 in the area, so the prediction was CORRECT.

Sunday, November 18, 2007, 1:45 PM: The big question is whether or not there will be a price hike this coming week, before people start traveling for Thanksgiving. I think that this year, the answer is “Yes”. Wholesale prices still reflect a $2.99-$3.19 range, and with prices near $3.10 in a lot of places, I expect a hike to $3.19 on Monday or Tuesday.

Prices should drift lower through the weekend

Comment on my 11/3 prediction:  The price hike to $3.29 didn’t arrive until Thursday 11/8, so I was WRONG.

Wednesday, November 14, 2007, 10:15 AM:  Since Halloween, wholesale prices have jumped 18 cents but the last few days, they have given most of that jump back.  That and my usual calculations suggest a $2.99-$3.19 range for price right now.  With prices in the area ranging from $3.10 to $3.29, I predict no price hike at least through Sunday, with prices drifting lower.

I hereby state that the 2007 hurricane season is done

With absolutely no meteorological reasoning, I declare the end to the 2007 hurricane season. Now- the “official” hurricane season runs until November 30, but with the current conditions unfavorable for hurricane development, I should say that the 2007 saw no major hurricanes hit the U.S. (in terms of catastrophic damage) yet oil prices are at the highest level ever recorded, along with the highest prices ever on record for diesel fuel.

Here is a Winter prediction: we’ll see gasoline prices remain high until a week or two after we get the first 35″ of snow for the 07/08 season, or until we have at least 6″ of snow on the ground. What’s behind this reasoning? Well, we likely won’t see this happen until January or February, and most refiners should be well out of maintenance by then, easing the demand crunch behind gasoline (and especially diesel) and things should calm down overseas.

Until then, hold on- things will continue to be rough, and we COULD see retail diesel in the Grand Rapids area hit $4/gallon.

Who’s ready for winter? I sure am! Let it snow!

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Reality sets in: we’re going to see $100/bbl oil- then what?

It is definitely looking like we’ll see oil prices hit $100 a barrel here in the next few days as the market continues to get bullish news regarding gasoline and oil.

I haven’t yet said anything about diesel prices this Winter (I got an e-mail) but I think for the most part we’ll be setting record diesel prices this Winter. Not a pretty picture. I was on WOODAM 1300 a few mornings ago and explained that I don’t think anything will get better until we’re buried in snow (the deep winter months- January) and the refiners get gasoline and diesel pumping out.

After that? Oil is due for a large correction. Should come back to $70 or $80 no problems… so until that happens we’re going to continue to get set up for a market correction (hopefully not a recession)

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