Was I WRONG, or just early?

Comment on last week’s prediction:  The long-awaited price hike to $3.19 occurred on Tuesday, June 26, which is a few days after my WRONG prediction expired.

Wednesday, June 27, 4:45 PM:  My apologies to all for the WRONG predictions of the past two weeks.  Sticking to my guns, I must have stopped at the gas station every morning last week to top off the tank.  So, let’s see if we can learn from recent price action.  Generally, when I lose the Gas Game, it is because either I don’t have a good read on the wholesale price or the Big Red retailer is behaving differently than usual.  As far as the wholesale price, I have been trying to use the AXXIS site, which provides sample wholesale prices from some Midwestern states.  The hike to $3.19 corresponds to a wholesale price of $2.42, but the AXXIS prices have been running higher than that, which has led to my price hike predictions.  $2.42 is still 15 cents higher than NYMEX prices, so Michigan wholesale prices remain a puzzle.  Then you have retailer behavior.  In Fort Wayne, prices re-set last Wednesday to $2.95.  I was in Cincinnati Monday morning and got to watch prices re-set to $2.95 there.  So, of course, Tuesday, Michigan’s new price is $3.19.  It was interesting to see every station at $3.19 from Three Rivers and north on US-131.  Ah, to be back in 2003, when there was a regular rhythm to the Game, and refiners weren’t shutting down and coming back on line with abandon.

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