Month: December 2006

Prices to fall into the New Year

Comment on last week’s prediction: Later that day, a hike to $2.43, so the prediction was CORRECT.

Thursday, December 28, 11:15 AM: Happy Holidays to All! Look for prices to continue their gentle slide through the New Years weekend. This morning, the 20-cent margin price is about $2.30, as wholesale prices have dropped more than a dime since the last price hike, and we are in the $2.24 to $2.36 range in town. Prices could get as low as $2.10. No idea about what happens after Monday, though.

GR Gas Prices coming down! Wait to fill if possible!

Seasons Greetings and Merry Christmas (albeit a bit early)!

Figured that with all the holiday traveling bound to happen this weekend, I would keep you updated on what to expect! =)

At the time I’m writing this (4:30pm EST) gasoline markets have “closed” down about 3 cents. We’re down to $1.65 per gallon for wholesale gasoline, which is better than the $1.72 we saw earlier this week. The Dept. of Energy report Wednesday on stockpiles wasn’t so great. Crude oil stockpiles dropped big. 6 million barrels to be exact. However, gasoline stockpiles got a 1 million barrel boost. Refiners are back at it, utilizing 90%+ of their usable capacity (down from a peak of around 93% in summer, but better than 87% during maintenance). After all, they should be trying to all out produce until Jan. 1 to drive down their inventories for tax purposes.

As for the “Chicago Discount” we’ve been seeing, you can expect that to continue for just a bit longer, as the Midwest PADD District gained in storage (from 51.2 to 51.8 million barrels) making the “high storage” discount roughly 2-3 cents per gallon. However, I expect after the holidays that discount to dry up as many in the Midwest travel the clean, dry roads this year (increasing local demand and driving down stockpiles)

I expect by the New Year we’ll see gasoline down to about 2.25-2.29, but I’ll keep you updated. For sure it looks like prices should be soon arriving at 2.25-2.33 at many locations.

A few more notes; you can put me down as saying that OPEC’s actions this month and last (by cutting oil supplies) could really hurt us come Spring and Summer. I also find it frustrating that when oil recently dropped below OPEC’s weighted average of $60, some OPEC countries were saying that they couldn’t survive. Rediculous. Just a few years ago they were happy with $22-$28. Just like many in corporate America, OPEC is getting greedy. Oh well.

P.S.- I’d like to welcome notable radio personality Gary Allen (WOOD 1300) to the mailing list. I am hoping that perhaps with his help, we can get a few more people to sign up or read The Gas Game and become more aware on how to save money!

Be sure to drive safe this holiday!

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Gas over $2.40 soon, it appears

Comment on last week’s prediction:  It was a CORRECT prediction, as prices jumped to $2.34 on the 14th.

Monday, December 18, 8:05 AM:  According to NYMEX, wholesale prices have ramped up 11 cents since the middle of last week, and I calculate the 20-cent margin price as $2.44 a gallon.  So, it appears a price hike is on its way, either Monday or Tuesday.

Another Gas Price Hike? Probably.

I know we just saw a hike last week Thursday, but things have changed
since then (and not for the better). Wholesale gasoline prices have
gone up about 7-10 cents and sit at 1.70-1.72, a level that brought the
price of 2.43 to the Grand Rapids pumps in the Spring.

Unfortunately, I think gas stations will pass this surge in wholesale
prices to us by mid-week. I’ll be looking for 2.39-2.45. Keep those
tanks full, there is about a 75% chance this hike will happen by
Tuesday afternoon.

~Patrick

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Get gas, price hike tomorrow!

Well its been a while since we’ve seen a price hike, but enjoy $2.10
(and less, according to GRGP.com) while it lasts. Today’s DOE report
showed some bad numbers for crude oil, gasoline, and distillate
inventories. They all fell, some more than expected. As for the Chicago
Discount we’ve been seeing for the past week or so, expect that to calm
down as well. We’re currently seeing about an 8-10cent discount
according to a source, making Midwest wholesale gasoline the cheapest
in the nation. Last week, the Midwest PADD fell from 52.5million
barrels to 51ish. Still a decent amount, however, I expect that
discount to drop to maybe 2-4cents per gallon.

The Speedway in Cascade has just reopened; obviously they had to fill
their tanks up with gasoline and they are currently priced at 2.39
(yes- 2.39 for that station today, even with the station across the
street much cheaper). That makes this weeks call a bit “easier”. I
believe that is the near the price all of Grand Rapids will see
tomorrow. We might get a break and see 2.35, but 2.35-2.39 is the
likely target for tomorrow AM.

Fill’er up!
~Patrick

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Prices near $2.10 have been nice

Comment on last week’s prediction: What? No price hike so far in December? That means the prediction was WRONG.
Wednesday, December 13, 8:45 AM: Thank you, Speedway and competitors, for the cheap prices the past several days. With the 0-cent margin price at about $2.11, a price hike last Thursday already would have fit the patterns of behavior that we monitor. But, it is Wednesday morning, and prices most everywhere are below $2.20. I don’t think the DOE report today is going to move things much, so I predict there will be a price hike today or tomorrow, with the new price in the neighborhood of $2.33.

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