Month: October 2006

Prediction: No Halloween Hike

Comment on last week’s prediction: Prices rose to $2.29 on Wednesday, so the prediction was basically CORRECT.

Tuesday, October 31, 9:00 AM: Although by last Wednesday, we were looking at wholesale prices of about $1.60, the numbers on NYMEX plunged on Monday, so that the wholesale price is about $1.46, making the 0-cent margin price about $1.96. Since the cheapest gas in town this morning is $2.15, prices have a lot of room to fall, and I predict they will. Expect no price hike this week.

$2.25, one more time!

Comment on last week’s prediction: Prices rose to $2.19 on Tuesday, and then $2.25 on Thursday. Eerily CORRECT.

Tuesday, October 24, 12:10 PM: Although wholesale prices started slipping on Friday and Monday, they are back to $1.50+ today, so once again we’ll see retail prices by Thursday afternoon head back to the neighborhood of $2.25. If you can find gas for under $2.10, fill up soon.

Predicting a third consecutive price hike to $2.25 or so

Comment on last week’s prediction:   And two hours after my posting, the price hike to $2.25 started.  CORRECT, but was it useful?

Monday, October 16, 5:15 PM:  Again, wholesale prices head back to $1.50, so again we’ll see retail prices by Thursday afternoon head back to the neighborhood of $2.25.  Be vigilant to fill up under $2.10 if you see a price hike starting.

Back to $2.25 again soon

Comment on last week’s prediction: On Thursday, prices rose almost everywhere in town to $2.25. Very CORRECT!

Tuesday, October 10, 9:30 AM: The situation is the same with the NYMEX numbers, so I am predicting that prices re-set to $2.25 again by the end of the day on Thursday. Meanwhile, I came across a theory this morning on Minyanville.com as to why gas prices fell so much in August and September. As they are fazing out the HU contract on NYMEX in favor of the RBOB contract, Goldman Sachs is adjusting its Commodity Index. It has lowered its weighting of gasoline in the index from 7.3% to 2.5%. As the Minyanville article states, “This forced billions of institutional dollars ‘mirroring’ the GSCI to sell gasoline [NYMEX] futures.” This does not seem far-fetched to me, as index investing is quite popular, and the main thesis of The Gas Game is that gasoline prices are controlled by the futures markets.

Great DOE report, but will Iran and other news let us get to 1.99?

Another good DOE report. Crude gained, gasoline gained, and distillates gained.

Venezula and Nigeria cut their own oil output as a result of “low prices” (rediculous), but that news actually helped push oil prices lower because it was such a small cut (170,000 barrels together). I’m willing to bet while those countries cut their production, Saudi Arabia might be “secretly” ramping up their output.

Back to the DOE report: We’re now well above in every category: oil, gasoline, and heating oil. Not to mention natural gas spot prices have been flirting with $3!

Refinery utilization dropped to 89.9 and gasoline production dropped significantly yet inventories gained.

Looks like its time for fall maintenance!

Iran might be the only issue stopping us from getting a big drop in futures.

We could see $1.99 in scattered areas by weekend if prices drop on the wholesale market today.

Expect to go back up to $2.25 or so

Comment on last week’s commentary:  There was a second attempt to re-set to $2.25 on Thursday.  It worked in most places.

Tuesday, October 3, 9:30 AM:  NYMEX “HU” prices have been holding stable at about $1.50 for two weeks now, creating a $2.05-$2.25 predicted range for gas prices.  With prices below $2.10 in several places, expect a re-set in the neighborhood of $2.25 by the end of day on Thursday.

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