Month: February 2006

Oh, joy. $2.49 yesterday?

Oh, joy. $2.49 yesterday? What’s up here? This morning, the 20-cent margin price is $2.25. Prices are cheaper in Chicago then here. I’ve checked around news sites and don’t see any news of refineries blowing up. So, either Speedway is tired of making only 20 cents a gallon, or someone made a mistake sending out a price hike e-mail yesterday to stations. Either way, I can’t believe this price hike will last, when the 0-cent margin price is $2.04. Wait to fill up, if possible. By Friday morning, prices were down to $2.38 in Walker, a bit lower away from Grand Rapids, but still at $2.49 in others. I’m going to have to give myself a WRONG here about believeing the price hike wouldn’t last.

$2.39 too high?

The joy of this little exercise is days like today when I and others can say, “That $2.39 is a rather extreme hike,” which is why a few places didn’t match it. Meanwhile, wholesale prices are lower than they were on Monday. So, if you can wait a day or two to fill up, do so, as prices should drop pretty quickly to below $2.26. Prices did drop below $2.26 in certain places around town, but I wouldn’t describe it as “pretty quickly”, and then we get this surprising price hike to $2.49. So, I’m going to give myself a 1/2 CORRECT, 1/2 WRONG on this prediction.

Here come wholesale prices!

Wholesale prices are up 12 cents since bottoming out last Tuesday. With prices as low as $2.03 in town, we definitely have a price hike coming before Friday, and maybe even today, with a target price of $2.29. Prices rose the same day, to $2.39! A CORRECT prediction, although the target was off.

Prices falling? Surprised? Yes.

I am really surprised with how wholesale gasoline prices have fallen this month. In the past two weeks, wholesale prices have fallen 37 cents, and we see the results at the pump — we are down to $2.06 this morning in Wyoming. It is these volatile times in the wholesale market that makes it really hard to predict the retail market. This is what I see this morning: March futures wholesale prices $1.43, April futures wholesale prices $1.58. That averages to $1.51, which is my estimate for the wholesale price. Throw in taxes, etc., and the 0-cent margin price is $2.01. Use just the March futures, and the 0-cent margin price is $1.93. So, retail prices have room to drop more, and I’m not ready to predict anything yet for the rest of the week. Later that day, there was a half-hearted price hike to $2.25. It wasn’t matched everywhere.

Wholesale prices fall

Wholesale prices keep falling, down 5 cents yesterday. That puts the 0-cent margin price this morning at $2.19, and the 20-cent margin price at $2.40. Unfortunately, the Speedways in town are in the range of $2.22 to $2.30, which means we probably have a price hike coming on Thursday or Friday to around $2.39. I don’t feel 100% confident of this prediction, though, and would prefer a weekend of prices below $2.20. No price hike — wholesale and retail prices kept dropping, so a WRONG prediction.

Lower pump prices!

Wholesale prices have really dropped the past few days, and we should be seeing it at the pumps. Expect prices everywhere to be below $2.40 by Monday, with prices in the $2.20’s in some places. That is exactly what happened. CORRECT!

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