Month: September 2005

September 29

Just a short warning to those running on empty. I’ll be looking for $3/gal here very shortly.

Rita is causing many more problems than initally thought, and the oil industry is saying that Rita is worse than Ivan (Ivan REALLY hurt the industry).

Hold on, it may be going up even more soon.

And remember- if you don’t have to drive, don’t.

September 28

GR Gas Prices may take another hike soon, thanks to a new “vigorous” tropical system that is developing in the Carribean. At this writing at 2:20pm, markets are up SHARPLY. Gasoline prices are up 11 cents a gallon, even after the DOE report that was positive.

**DOE Report
The DOE report came back extremely good for gasoline, however, it was such good news, stock traders and the market have rejected its accuracy. The Dept of Energy reported that gasoline inventories unexpectedly climbed 4.4 million barrels (exactly the amount of fuel the U.S. uses in 3.5 days). The American Petroleum Institute, another firm that follows inventories also said gasoline inventories gained, but they said 2.2 million barrels (it is noteworthy that these two reports don’t necessarily have to be the same- just the fact that both reports have large gains is the factor to look at). Crude inventories fell as expected, and REMAIN “well above” the high end of the five year moving average. Gasoline inventories are no longer “much below” average, they are now just 2.9% lower than one year ago, and are in the “lower” range of the five year average.

What is in the future?
All eyes are on the National Hurricane Center and I await news on this current storm. I have been tracking it since the NHC has, it developed about two days ago, but it still has not developed into a major event. Gasoline traders are VERY worried about this storm. This could really setback the repair of facilities or effect other facilities if it develops into a significant storm.

As predicted, gas prices did rise today, although 3 cents higher than I anticipated.
It is my opinion that at this point, this Prices may hike again shortly, and we could be looking at $3 a gallon again soon. This storm is the #1 concern. Hurricane season needs to end now.

I commend those who have e-mailed me telling stories of conserving fuel. It takes a lot of sacrifice, but we’re making progress! Everyones efforts help! Avoid unwarranted trips, and carpool! The U.S. will be in shock if we continue to use gasoline like we do.

Please continue to conserve.

September 27

Hi everyone–

Its that time- time for a rise in gas prices.

Hurricane Rita was thought to have caused minimal damage to the oil refiners in the Gulf. As I said on Sunday, we didn’t see an initial Monday rise, but I predicted that it would take until today for all the bad news to surface- and it did.

I also find it very odd that the Speedway up in Comstock Park raised prices to 2.819 already. Its also odd, that upon checking the Speedway I used this summer in Sandusky, Ohio, that their price today was also 2.819. This leads me to believe that the owner of the Comstock Park location actually got the news to rise one day early, since no other Speedway hiked their prices yet.

This leads me to believe that we will see (and according to the wholesale market, we are due…) a price hike tomorrow or late this week to 2.819 area. If it doesn’t happen tomorrow, I will be suprised. Tomorrow is also the date of either very good news or very bad news from the Dept Of Energy’s Weekly Petroleum report. That could either send wholesale gas prices down, or up. In my experience, after a hurricane like this, the DOE report is BIG STUFF.

I would make sure that you’re over a half tank . Please heed to what people are saying- CONSERVE GAS.

***WE, the United States Citizens get to set gas prices!! If we use less gas, the price will be less! So why drive unless absolutely necessary?

Monday, September 26, 2005

Wrong predictions like last Monday’s require you to go back and look at your calculations. The problem the past several weeks has been the “fudge factor” that takes into account the difference between the NYMEX futures prices and the wholesale prices in western Michigan. When Katrina struck, the FF was at least +20 cents, which contributed to prices of $3.39. But based on Friday’s price hike, the FF is currently -15 cents. Before Katrina, the FF varied at most between -10 and 10 cents, so you can see how this is making predictions impossible. So, let me just share what I see right now: with NYMEX prices down to $2.00 a gallon today, the 0-cent margin price (with FF=0, like last autumn) is $2.53, and the 20-cent margin price is $2.74. As I drive around town, I’m going to this to help decide whether or not to fill up the next two days, but prices could fall to $2.39 again, or up to $2.79. Maybe the crystal ball will be clearer later this week. The crystal ball has been broken — price hikes on Wednesday and Friday? Rumors of wholesale prices above $3?

September 21

I’m going to say tomorrow is the day we see a gas price rise (due to Hurricane Rita). Hopefully I will be correct (well, hopefully not, I don’t like paying more, right?)

Looking for $2.79 or so.

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