Monday, December 20, 2004

Thursday’s price hike was not as bad as I feared, and it sent me to my records to see that last December, there was also a “discount” from the predicted price. Remember my predictions are based on the trading of gasoline futures in New York, since those quotes are readily available, so we’re seeing some East Coast/Midwest differential again. Meanwhile, I hear up on Alpine, prices are back in the low $1.60’s already. So, looking ahead, wholesale price volatilty continues to make predictions more difficult, but based on what is going on today, taking out this temporary “discount” (figure 6 cents), and seeing Christmas coming at the end of the week, the most likely outcome is a price hike back to $1.79 on Wednesday or Thursday. Let’s book that as my last prediction of 2004, as I’ll be taking a few weeks off from the Gas Game, starting up again on January 11th, 2005. Let’s say 1/4 CORRECT, 3/4 WRONG. Some of the Citgo’s in town raised their price to $1.79, but no one else did. The price hikes came later, on December 30, 2004, and then again on January 6, 2005, to $1.89.

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