Since Election Day, we have been playing ping-pong between $1.79 and $1.99 in town, as wholesale prices continue bouncing between $1.23 and $1.30. Some of the movements have been fast in both directions, and I think this week we’ll see more of the same. Look for prices to move down towards $1.79 and then rise, again, to $1.99, probably on Thursday. OK, so I was quite WRONG with this prediction, going so far as to fill up my tank at $1.81 on Thursday morning. But how was I to know that wholesale gas prices would drop 15 cents a gallon in 3 days?
Month: November 2004
Wow, futures exploded upwards on Friday, and continue their path higher this morning. That puts the 20-cent margin price at $2.03 and rising. With prices already below $1.90 this morning, and Thanksgiving coming up, I smell another price rise, either Tuesday or Wednesday. Time to play horseshoes: there was a price hike last week to $1.99, which occured late Monday, or during the day Tuesday, depending where you were. Close enough for CORRECT.
I tend to criticize Speedway a lot, but they have been leading prices down from the $2.15 on October 25. Today a few Speedways are asking $1.82 or $1.83 for a gallon of gas, the cheapest in town. If this morning’s indications on NYMEX are correct, prices will continue to fall this week! As I post this, wholesale prices have dropped to $1.22, which converts to a retail range from $1.72 to $1.93. So, I think the most likely scenario is continued drops to the mid $1.70’s and then a price hike on Thursday to $1.93 or so. If this sounds a lot like what I posted last Monday, just with lower numbers, it is. And, like last week, I reserve the right to change this prediction if the action in the wholesale market changes. As predicted, prices rose on Thursday, to $1.95. CORRECT prediction.
Wholesale prices have dropped again! The 20-cent margin price is now $1.95, while the low price in town is $1.87. I am reconsidering my last prediction of a price hike tomorrow. I’m going to go with something less certain: If there is a price hike on Thursday, then it will be to around $1.95. But I think there is only a 50/50 chance a price hike now. It appears that my caution was warranted as there was no price hike last week. Technically, the if/then statement is correct (the “if” part is false), but I won’t take any credit.
Wholesale prices have dropped 14 cents since the last price hike to $2.15 on October 25. That tells you that $2.01 is the 20-cent margin price right now. Seeing how prices in town range from $1.90 to $2.01 this morning, that sets up the following scenario: prices drop towards $1.83 by Wednesday, and then a price hike to $1.99 on Thursday. This assumes that wholesale prices don’t change much this week. I’ll update on Wednesday if necessary. I modified this prediction on Wednesday.