Month: September 2002

Monday, September 30, 2002

Now this gets tricky. Starting tomorrow, the refineries don’t need to make the special summer gas blends. These blends cause the “Chicago Summer Premium” which is built into gas prices right now. At the same time, it seems that when the stations raise prices lately, it has been to a 15-cent margin, not 20 cents. Also, futures prices (oil and gasoline) are up due to the coming war with Iraq. Put this all together, and I see that prices could fall quickly to $1.27, but that they could just as well rise quickly if futures prices spike. So, I’m not counting this as a prediction, but I’ll be watching day-to-day.

Monday, September 9, 2002

Once again, futures have moved up to close to 80 cents, and retail price is down below $1.35. Every time that has happened this summer, there was a price hike of at least 10 cents. It will happen again this week, I predict, but the question is when. Tuesday is possible, but because of 9/11, I’m guessing the gas stations wait until Thursday morning. Then, if we start bombing Bagdad on Friday, after Bush’s UN speech, there will be a second price hike. CORRECT! The price hike to $1.47 came Thursday morning. We did not bomb Bagdad.

Wednesday, September 4, 2002

I leave town on Friday, and gas is $1.48. I come back on Tuesday, and gas is $1.36. Unless we attack Iraq this week, expect prices to continue down to below $1.30 as the week goes on. CORRECT, sort of. Prices have drifted down a bit, but not as much as I thought.

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