Sunday 04 Jan 2009 | Posted By
Patrick |
Predictions
After an unprecedented week of price hikes in the area, I am sad to report that more hike(s) are likely very soon. The stage is set for a price hike Monday to $1.99 (they’d go higher but I expect them to stay under $2 because of negative reaction), but the exact price may be different if the market drops a significant amount tonight (Sunday).
Unfortunately, it looks like the pending war between Israel and Hamas and OPEC are likely two of the main reasons that wholesale prices and oil prices have been rising. It looks like the market may be starting to turn back as we get closer to Spring.
Also, our spot pricing is much higher, in my opinion, due to our PADD levels being so low. We’re sitting at 46.8 million barrels of petroleum in storage. We haven’t seen a low like that since 2007.
That can probably be traced to Sunoco’s Toledo, OH refinery undergoing 6 weeks of maintenance that that recently started.
Those two factors are likely pushing MIDWEST prices higher than other places.
We’ll see how things go, but I would definitely fill up tonight or first thing in the morning as our trend has definitely turned into a upward pressure on prices rather than a downward pressure on prices.
Has our enjoyment of gas around $1.50 come to an end? It might have…
Fill up!
Patrick
Thursday 01 Jan 2009 | Posted By
Ed Aboufadel |
Commentary
January 1, 2009, 1:00 PM: Happy New Year! Or, maybe not, with a holiday price hike to $1.85 today, according to the Speedway web site. NYMEX prices jumped more than 10 cents on New Years Eve day, and this raised the likelihood of a hike on Friday, but I am surprised by this today. Then again, it is Thursday. If you bought that UGA ETF that tracks NYMEX gas prices on Tuesday, you would have been 9% richer at the end of the day on Wednesday. Nice if you can figure out how to time something like that.
Thursday 01 Jan 2009 | Posted By
Patrick |
Predictions
As I said on GrandRapidsGasPrices.com yesterday afternoon:
Looking for a reset soon to $1.79-$1.89! Today’s market sure didn’t help either- I would get gas soon.
Looks like Speedway is caught in an odd dilemma on New Years Day! Get gas at $1.69 while you can, $1.85 WILL be arriving soon! Happy New Years, and welcome 2009!
Wednesday 31 Dec 2008 | Posted By
Ed Aboufadel |
Commentary
Wednesday, December 31, 2008, 10:45 AM: I don’t have a good sense of what is in store the next week or so. Monday’s price hike was at first blush a bit surprising, but then you look at the numbers and the retail price was about the same as the 0-cent margin price, so that’s why they hiked it.
I want to go back to a posting I made a year ago on GrandRapidsGasPrices.com, to start the "The Gas Game 2008 — Predictions" thread:
"This begins another year of trying to outwit the retailers and buy gas the day before a price hike. If past history holds, prices should climb into mid-January, then sell off for a few weeks, followed by some relentless hikes through the end of March. Next, relatively steady prices until the end of June. July through September … anything can happen, and then gentle drops through the last three months of the year. Some say we’ll hit $4 a gallon in 2008. Others say we’ll get a recession, and prices will fall significantly."
Other than the fact that hikes were relentless from March until June, all of this happened! We got to $4.25, we got a recession, we got prices falling significantly.
I have to say that I found this year pretty stunning. Consequently, for the moment at least, trying to get gas for $1.55 versus $1.65 seems kind of silly after gas was over $4 this summer.
Nevertheless, we will be back again in 2009 to play … The Gas Game!
Tuesday 23 Dec 2008 | Posted By
Ed Aboufadel |
Commentary
Tuesday, December 23, 2008, 1:45 PM: Let’s review what has happened since the double-hike of December 11. First, in Standale, Meijer didn’t match the second hike to $1.75, so prices were back to $1.59 the next day. (Hooray for competition!) Since then, they have not changed very much and were $1.55 or so this morning. Everywhere else, prices have dropped, sometimes to the $1.50’s, sometimes still in the upper $1.60’s. I understand from GrandRapidsGasPrices.com that gas is $1.45 in Hudsonville today. Are they itching for a pre-Christmas hike on Wednesday?
Looking at NYMEX, prices are 20 cents a gallon cheaper than two weeks ago, including a big 8-cent drop yesterday. AXXIS seems to be running ahead of NYMEX by a several cents, which is surprising this time of year. Using NYMEX, there would be clearly no price hike this week. Using AXXIS, it is not so clear. So, I would fill up for $1.50 if I can and enjoy the holidays.
Tuesday 23 Dec 2008 | Posted By
Patrick |
Predictions
Tread carefully today folks! We may see an increase this morning to $1.69 or so. If it doesn’t happen by 11am, we’re off the hook for today, but with recent conditions around the Midwest, it may be possible that we see a hike here in West Michigan this morning.
Fill up if you can find gas under $1.55!
Patrick
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